In part 1 we saw details of the Tomago smelter load shedding, part 2 was about coal plants. And in this post, we look at generation from renewables and gas peaking plants.
Windfarms
Fig 21: NSW generation from windfarms over 24 hrs on 27 Nov 2024
Quite variable wind output. There was a drop from 1,800 MW at 10:30 to 700 MW at 16:00 but a sudden increase to 1,600 MW over 1 hour. That contributed to easing the situation.
However, the loss compared to a linear decrease between 1,800 MW and 1,600 MW was 3,700 MWh. That would have required 2 Waratah batteries, fully charged before 10:30. The gap was actually filled by hydro, see further down.
Solar
Fig 22: NSW solar generation over 3 days
Solar varies from day to day but is otherwise more predictable than wind. Total solar generation is dominated by solar rooftop (fed into the grid and estimated by AEMO) compared to solar farms (utility with measured output) but the ratio changes over the day from 2:1 at noon to 1:1 by 4 pm.
Fig 23: NSW generation from solar farms
We can see that the decline is very steep in the last 2 hrs, around 1,200 MW (end of spring)
Hydro
Fig 24: NSW hydro power generation
Snowy hydro is the typical peaking plant but has also other functions.
Fig 25: Wind and hydro
We can see that hydro was able to compensate for variable wind generation during the critical afternoon hours
Fig 26: All renewable generation together
Hydro was able to compensate for both variable wind and declining solar power in the afternoon. Generation between 12 noon and 6 pm was almost 9,000 MWh. Note that hydro provides vital rotational inertia (synchronous AC generation)
Gas peaking plants
Fig 27: Gas peaking plants over 3 days plus diesel (!)
Fig 27: NSW gas generation
Gas started at 12:30 and reached 1,200 MW in the afternoon.
Colongra (4×181=724 MW) was used at less than half its capacity suggesting not all units were in operation. Uranquinty (4×173= 692 MW) was running at 68%, Tallawarra B (320 MW) at almost full capacity in the evening. Tallawarra TALWA1 (opened in 2009) was offline for upgrading works. There do not seem to have been gas shortages as demand for heating usually drops off in spring. But there is a problem with gas supplies as conventional gas production is in decline.
28 Mar 2024 Peak gas in Victoria, Australia
https://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-gas-in-victoria-australia
Infrastructure for a floating LNG import terminal is under construction in Port Kembla, expected to open in 2025/26.
Port Kembla Energy Terminal only solution to Australia’s looming domestic gas shortage
27 Sep 2024
The ACCC’s updated outlook on gas demand and supply confirms Australia’s east coast faces gas shortfalls as early as 2026.
Our import terminal is nearing completion and the Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) is contracted on a long-term charter. There are no other terminals that have been approved, let alone have started construction – that can meet the market shortfall in time.
https://www.squadronenergy.com/news/port-kembla-energy-terminal-only-solution-to-australias-looming-domestic-gas-shortage
But it’s not that easy
Australia’s first LNG import terminal nears completion amid deadlock with energy companies
13 Apr 2024
Tony Wood from Grattan: “The problem with a terminal is ships turn up, they are very expensive ships, and having them sitting at a port like Port Kembla discharging gas slowly is very expensive,” Mr Wood said.
“What you would have to do is line up the arrival of ships with the demand for that gas on the east coast of Australia, and that means you might even have to back off taking gas from existing resources.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-13/australias-first-gas-terminal-nears-completion/103701306
Remember Prime Minister John Howard declared Australia to be an energy super power by exporting coal and gas
Howard outlines energy superpower vision
17 July 2006
“As an efficient, reliable supplier, Australia has a massive opportunity to increase its share of global energy trade – with the right policies, we have the makings of an energy superpower,” he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2006-07-17/howard-outlines-energy-superpower-vision/1803744
LNG exports started on the west coast under Howard. The following Rudd government carbon copied this policy on the east coast by approving in 2010 the LNG export terminal in Gladstone, using Queensland’s (unconventional) coal seam gas. So this bi-partisan, export oriented gas policy has created the east coast gas crisis.
Part 4 of this post will be about the political debate of this load shedding event and the consequences for planning