Using above incrementals (RHS) we get following production (LHS): The graph shows: actual production up to 2014 (green line), IEA forecast done in 3rd quarter 2014 (just as oil prices started to drop, light blue line), IEA forecast of February 2015 (dark blue line)
Russia expects decline of oil export revenue in 2016
7/7/2014 MOSCOW, July 07. /ITAR-TASS/. Russian finance ministry predicts a 156.4 billion roubles ($4.5 billion) decline in 2016 oil export revenue from the earlier figure stipulated in the federal budget law for 2014 and the planned period 2015 and 2016, says the Ministry’s draft federal budget for 2015-2017.
From the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences
More details: 9/6/2013 FSU crude oil exports decline by 5.5% in last 2 years http://crudeoilpeak.info/fsu-crude-oil-exports-declined-by-5-5-in-last-2-years
GAZPROM IN FIGURES 2008–2012 FACTBOOK
At the end of 2012 the government issued licenses for the development of the last remaining large lots on the books of the Federal Agency for Subsoil Use (Rosnedra). The fields are Lodochnoye in Krasnoyarsk region and Shpielman and Imilor in Khanty-Mansy region. Therefore, in the mid-term the opportunities for commissioning of new large fields will be limited.
According to the oil companies’ plans, by 2020 they will put in operation such fields as Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye, Russkoye, Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye, Novoportovskoye, Kuyumbinskoye and Imilorskoye.
As a result, by 2025, the increase in annual production from commissioning of new large fields will amount to 100 mln t. The majority of new fields will be commissioned after 2015, and until then maintaining production at stable levels will remain a very difficult task.
Forecasted production volumes for the new projects are unlikely to compensate the natural decline rate at old fields. http://www.lukoil.com/materials/doc/documents/Global_trends_to_2025.pdf
Estimate July 2011
1989: fall of the Berlin Wall 4/10/2010
Russia’s oil peak and the German reunification
INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLOITATION OF URENGOY OIL, GAS, CONDENSATE FIELD by Grigory Lanchakov to the International Gas Union reads: “Currently, for the Cenomanian and Valanginian horizons of Urengoy field, which are at a late stage of development, the time of «easy gas» is over.” Graph shows that 69% of Cenomanian gas is gone