15 June 2022 by Matt Mushalik (MEng)
The Australian public is finally waking up. Not because of academic debate in the social media but by the threat of power cuts.
Power uncertainty hits multiple states as AEMO makes moves to cover shortfalls
14/6/2022
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-14/queensland-blackouts-power-supply-concerns-australia-aemo/101151286
We continue to analyse power generation for June 2022
NSW coal plants
Fig 14: NSW scheduled coal plant capacities 2022-2026
Closure dates are highlighted by cells marked red, sums added by author.
The spreadsheet is from here:
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-planning-data/generation-information
Fig 15: Graphical presentation of table above
Liddell
Fig 16: Liddell actual generation 628 MW from LD01 and LD02
Liddell LD03 closed in April 2022. AGL had announced:
Liddell’s first unit closure marks another major step in AGL’s energy transition
1/4/2022
https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2022/april/liddell-s-first-unit-closure-marks-another-major-step-in-agl-s-e
LD04 had gone offline May 21st and did not return since then. This has contributed to the current problem.
Fig 17: Liddell generation measured in MWh dropped 62% from May 18th to May 22nd – May 25th
The remaining 2 units LD01 and LD02 should have generated 2×420= 840 MW. Instead, actual output was 75% of that.
Generation data are available here:
https://opennem.org.au/facility/au/NEM/LIDDELL/?range=7d&interval=30m
Liddell is scheduled to close in April 2023 due to aging and unreliable equipment which caused load shedding in May 2021
7/6/2021
NSW power spot price spikes May 2021 become regular (part 1)
https://crudeoilpeak.info/nsw-power-spot-price-spikes-may-2021-become-regular-part-1
Tomago and Alcoa’s Portland aluminium smelters forced to curtail production
3/6/2022
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/tomago-and-alcoas-portland-aluminium-smelters-forced-to-curtail-production/news-story/0c136afc2a3c77c09123bc622347255a
Bayswater
Fig 18: After 10 June Bayswater has been running on 1 cylinder: BW01 at 658 MW
Fig 19: Bayswater 2 units went off-line BW02 on June 7th and BW04 on June 9th
BW03 stopped working beginning of March.
Mt Piper
Fig 20: Mt Piper was running at 100% during peak hours. MP2 back again Sun 5/6/22
The picture was different a week earlier:
Fig 21: Mt Piper actual generation in week 22 was around 700 MW (only MP1).
https://opennem.org.au/facility/au/NEM/MP/?range=7d&interval=30m
Eraring
Fig 22: AEMO’s plea to generate more power has worked: Eraring has ramped up to capacity
https://opennem.org.au/facility/au/NEM/ERARING/?range=7d&interval=30m
Eraring is scheduled to be shut down after the winter of 2025, only 3 years from now.
Vales Point B
Fig 23: Vales Pt also generated up to capacity
https://opennem.org.au/facility/au/NEM/VP/?range=7d&interval=30m
Eraring and Vales Pt are the most variable coal plants in the whole system.
All together:
| NSW coal plant performance evening peak 14 June 2022 | ||||
| Power plant | Scheduled (MW) | Actual (MW) | % | Notes |
| Liddell | 3×420 = 1,260 | 628 | 50 % | LD03, LD04 off |
| Bayswater | 2×660, 2×685 = 2,690 | 658 | 24 % | Only BW01 working |
| Mt Piper | 700 + 730 = 1,430 | 1,427 | 100% | |
| Eraring | 2×720, 700, 680 = 2,820 | 2,774 | 98% | |
| Vales Pt | 2 x 660 = 1,320 | 1,292 | 98% | |
| 5 power plants | 9,520 | 6,779 | 71% | |
.
Fig 24: NSW power supply by fuel type in week 23/24
The maximum coal plants could deliver during 7 days was 7,240 MW 8 June 2022
It is very clear that the power supply problem starts in the afternoon as solar output declines. That was entirely foreseeable. As output from coal plants is limited, there is wind, hydro, gas and imports to cover peak demands. On days without wind and imports (when there are problems in neighbouring states), it’s only hydro and gas.
To be continued
Previous post:
10 Jun 2022
Australia East Coast power crisis (part 1: NSW demand peaks)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australia-east-coast-power-crisis-part-1
