Australia’s public broadcaster, in its flagship 7:30 program, highlighted fuel supply problems in this story:
VIDEO: Fears about Australia’s fuel security in the future
3 Dec 2025
Running out?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-03/fears-about-australia-s-fuel-security/106098554
It includes a transcript but there is also an article titled:
Australia’s oil refineries will need government support to avoid a reliance on fuel imports
3 Dec 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-03/australias-oil-refineries-need-government-support-to-compete/106095796
The post on this website will go through some statements and provide analysis and graphs.
(1) The title of the above article is already misleading. Australia IS ALREADY RELIANT on fuel imports as shown in these and previous posts:
21 July 2025
Australian petrol import dependency April 2025 Update
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-petrol-import-dependency-april-2025-update
Fig 1: Australian petrol imports update Sep 2025
30 June 2025
Australian jet fuel imports are 50% dependent on Middle East
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-jet-fuel-imports-are-50-per-cent-dependent-on-middle-east-oil
Fig 2: Australia’s jet fuel imports update Sep 2025
17 June 2025
Australian diesel import dependency on Middle East oil (54%) Update April 2025
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-diesel-import-dependency-on-middle-east-oil-update-april-2025
Fig 3: Australian jet fuel imports update Sep 2025
Fuel imports increased because of peak oil in Australia, under Prime Minister John Howard’s watch
Fig 4: Peak oil in Australia happened under Howard’s watch
Most of Australian crude oil is exported due to a geographic and grade mismatch. 70% of the oil is from the North West Shelf (Karratha) which is closer to Singapore than the East coast. Also, it is light oil and condensate which does not meet the heavier oil requirements of Australian refineries.
Fig 5: Australian crude oil exports vs production
The decline in exports will continue in the next 2 years according to the Office of the Chief Economist (Department of Industry, Science and Resources)
Fig 6: Volume and value of Australian crude and condensate exports
https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2025.pdf
(2) Quote: “Just over 20 years ago Australia had eight oil refineries which met most of the country’s demand for refined fuel. But one by one, they were deemed economically unviable.
Six have been shuttered, only Ampol’s Lytton refinery near Brisbane and Viva Energy’s refinery in Geelong remain”
This website has closely followed the closure/sale of refineries over the years:
13/4/2011
Australia’s fuel import vulnerability increases as Sydney’s Clyde refinery is closing
http://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-fuel-import-vulnerability-increases-as-sydneys-clyde-refinery-is-closing
27/7/2012
After Sydney’s refinery closure: Caltex to import fuel from Chevron’s shrinking sales
http://crudeoilpeak.info/after-sydney-refinery-closure-caltex-to-import-fuel-from-chevrons-shrinking-sales
23/2/2014
Geelong refinery sold as Shell’s oil production continues to decline
http://crudeoilpeak.info/geelong-refinery-sold-as-shells-oil-production-continues-to-decline
9/4/2014
Why the closure of BP’s Brisbane Bulwer refinery reduces Australia’s energy security
http://crudeoilpeak.info/why-the-closure-of-bps-brisbane-bulwer-refinery-reduces-australias-energy-security
17/10/2014
Sydney’s Caltex refinery closed as Chevron’s crude production and sales continue to decline
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sydneys-caltex-refinery-closed-as-chevrons-crude-production-and-sales-continue-to-decline
14/11/2020
Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure [March 2021]: peak oil context
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-bp-kwinana-refinery-closure-peak-oil-context
The BP production graph in the above post shows peaks in 2005 and 2009. An update to 2024 looks like this:
Fig 7: BP crude production 2000 – 2024
This graph shows the whole drama of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine.
15/2/2021
Exxon-Mobil’s Altona refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context
https://crudeoilpeak.info/exxon-mobils-refinery-closure-in-australia-peak-oil-context
No government has taken these fundamental changes seriously. More oil dependent infrastructure like freeways, tollways and airports have been approved and built. Long distance electrification of rail for both passengers and freight have not been pursued.
(3 )Quote: “Refined fuels are the backbone of Australia’s economy but the country is increasingly vulnerable to global supply shocks, with around 80 per cent of liquid fuel imported from overseas.”
“That means only 20 per cent of our liquid fuel demand is refined domestically. The rest is imported.”
WIP. To be continued