Summary
Stock of fuel reached record levels, but the future of fuel orders is unclear. We need to continue to monitor this because we cannot know what will happen in the Middle East.
Normal orders
Forward fuel and crude oil orders remained on last week’s level. No details were given on forward orders by fuel. What is the most important fuel in our economy? Diesel of course. Do we know how many diesel forward orders (in ML) have been placed for the next 4 weeks? NO!
Extra orders
All extra orders placed in April should have arrived by now but the Minister did not update the public what the running balance is and which extra orders are yet to arrive
Instead of improving fuel security reporting as suggested in Crudeoilpeak’s last post, LESS details were given in Chris Bowen’s Press conference in front of his electoral office on Saturday morning 13 June 2026.
Is this Australia’s statistical dark fleet?
MSO update with data from 9th June
Press conference at Fairfield West, New South Wales
13 June 2026
MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, CHRIS BOWEN: All right, thanks for coming everyone. Well, today is obviously the weekly petrol update. And I’m very pleased to say that we have record amounts of fuel in Australia in the face of ongoing international difficulties……
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-3
Fig 1: MSO table update 9/6/26
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics
Fig 2: Yes, record amounts of (refined) fuel onshore AND offshore
Fig 3: Diesel stock time series onshore (estimated) AND offshore in EEZ
Note that the onshore stock of 2,720 ML is just about the MSO level of 3 March. Everything above that is offshore, not immediately pumpable.
Fig 4: Comparison diesel stock held 3 March/9 June
Note that onshore diesel stock held above the MSO level is a bit more than 5 day’s consumption.
Forward orders – ships on the way
MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, CHRIS BOWEN: We have 54 ships on the way to Australia. We have 54 ships on the way to Australia with various types of fuel and 3.5 billion litres of fuel deliveries locked in over the next four weeks.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-3
Fig 5: ‘Ships on the way’ vs ‘ships arrive”.
As explained in the last post “shiploads received” and “ships arrive” are confusingly named but are actually fuel cargos discharged at various berths/ports along the coast, often by the same tanker.
And now comes the omission. Usually, the Minister would inform the public about the fuels by type which make up the 3.5 bn litres he mentioned, including crude oil. Not this time. Why not?
Incidentally, 3.5 bn litres is the number of the previous week. Coincidence?
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-2
Forward orders – timeline column chart
So, let’s leave everything unchanged, dim the colours of the new stacked column and put question marks where the updated numbers should be. This is the graph w/o extra orders:
Fig 6: Stacked column chart with fuel orders and question marks
Maybe next week the Minister will bring some details then this post will be amended.
Forward extra orders
But it gets worse: we are flying blind with extra orders despite the Minister’s assurances.
MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, CHRIS BOWEN: This has been the government working hard with industry, securing extra fuel supplies through the Export Finance Australia arrangements….
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-3
No new extra orders were announced. Did these orders dry up?
You would expect some data to support the Minister’s statement. 23rd May was the last time a proper balance of extra orders was given (700 ML). On that date, the Minister rightly deducted 100 ML from a total order number processed by EFA of 800 ML. The deduction was made for orders already arrived and therefore turned into actual imports.
Fig 7: Order book as at 30 May
In the meantime, all April orders should have arrived in Australia. Here are 3 examples from:
https://crudeoilpeak.info/tankers-arriving-and-departing-in-sydney
- HAFNIA THALASSA (AFRAMAX LR2) departure in the Netherlands NL IJM on 3/4/26 arrival in Sydney, Botany Bay on 18/5/26
- IMPERIAL (Medium Range) departure in South Korea KR YOS on 24/4/26 arrival in Sydney Gore Bay on 22/5/26
- GRAND WINNER 6 (PANAMAX LR1) departure in Taiwan TW MLI on 30/4/26 arrival in Sydney Kurnell KUR2 on 31/5/26
Last week’s column chart can’t be updated
In that case, 300 ML of diesel orders would have to be deducted. Last week’s forward order’s graph including extra orders was:
Fig 8: Forward orders dated 6 June incl. extra orders
Last week, the Minister also only mentioned normal orders (“3.5 billion litres of fuel locked in”)
Normal orders 1800 ML diesel + 512 ML petrol + 468 ML jet fuel +709 ML crude = 3,489 ML
+
Extra order balance 30 May of 590 ML diesel + 150 ML jet fuel =740 ML
Implied total 4,229 ML
Therefore, if the remaining April orders of 300 ML diesel were also deducted, then diesel orders would stand at 2,390-300=2,090 ML, substantially down from 2,300+450 = 2,750 ML on 9 May and almost back to 18 April levels.
Stock levels vs lagged orders
The record amounts of fuel the Minister was glad to announce can be, at least partially, explained by a record level of forward orders 4 weeks earlier on 9 May.
Fig 9: Stocks vs previous orders shifted by 4 weeks
We can see that orders 4 weeks ago climbed faster (+1,323 ML) than stock 4 weeks later (+551 ML). This means that appr. 800 ML was immediately consumed (or went into private tanks?)
High time eternal peace breaks out in the Middle East.
