Executive Data Summary
- Fuel stock is on a bumpy plateau of 6.3 bn litres for the last 8 weeks reaching limits to growth
- Diesel stock has been on an average of 3.5 bn litres over that same period, having reached safe onshore fill capacity. 670 ML are offshore and 745 ML onshore above MSO levels. Optimistically counting offshore as secure both these volumes together are 1,145 ML and would be equivalent to 15 days (at 93 ML diesel per day) until MSO levels would have to be reduced.
- Ships on the water have declined by 20% to 44 from 55 two weeks ago.
- Forward fuel orders declined by 31 % compared to May 9th
- For the 6th consecutive week orders by fuels have not been disclosed. For example, we do not know how many ML of diesel we can expect in the next 4 weeks. That makes planning of big diesel consuming projects very risky.
- The public is not being updated on what happened to the “extra”, EFA supported fuel orders.
- These numbers contradict the Minister’s business as usual narrative, ignoring the attack on the 7 mb/d Abqaiq processing facility and pumping station in Saudi Arabia and the attack on 2 LNG ships in Damietta 70km west of Port Said, a clear warning that the Suez canal can also be closed, not just Bab el Mandab.
This article will show the above data in timeline graphs, relating them to statements of the Minister in his Saturday press conference.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-6
Ministerial statements analyzed
More important are the stocks in ML. They are available in a graph on the DCCEEW website (see Fig 8 in Appendix). Usually, the Minister says that stock now is higher than before the Iran war started. So let’s look at the timeline graph
Fig 1: Fuel stock held since 3rd of March. Stock is 20% higher now
Here is the timeline graph for diesel:
Fig 2: Diesel stock held, currently 22% above 3rd March level
39 days corresponds to 93 ML diesel per day. The red line is the stock from the Australian Petroleum Statistics which have strict definitions. It is estimated that 82% are onshore incl. in domestic waters as per APS (2,970 ML). This means that 3,640 – 2,970 = 670 ML are offshore and 2,970 ML – 2,225 ML Minimum Stock Obligation = 745 ML onshore above MSO. Let us assume optimistically that the offshore stock is secure we have 3,640 ML – 2,225 ML = 1,415 ML above MSO. That is the equivalent of 1,415 ML / 93 ML/day = only 15 days until MSO levels would have to be lowered. This would be in the (unlikely) event that no more tankers arrive. But it is mentioned here to put the publicized numbers into perspective.
Fig 3: tankers on the way are counted from when leaving the port overseas
The numbers have dropped by 20% to 44 from 55 two weeks ago. The grey columns are the cumulative ship loads arrived in each month as reported in earlier, monthly updates. The current number of 84 is estimated from the Minister’s communication of 47 by 18 July
No, not consistent. I fact, forward orders have declined from a high on 9th May
Fig 4: Forward orders since 18th April
Forward orders declined by 31 % compared to 9th May. Moreover, it is now 6 weeks that orders by fuels have not been disclosed. For example, we do not know how many ML of diesel we can expect in the next 4 weeks. This is most important because how can governments plan diesel consuming projects if they don’t know what is coming.
Fig 4 does not contain the historic extra orders which brought total orders to 5,000 ML in May. These orders should all have arrived by now but the Minister did not inform the public about the balance.
There was also the case of the tanker GRAND WINNER 5 which got stuck offshore Wollongong for 8 weeks (it has now discharged its fuel and is on the way back to South Korea. The Minister dodged a journo’s question whether this had anything to do with an extra order gone wrong. We have now another tanker HAFNIA MIKALA which is already waiting since July 12th. The normal time is a 2-3 days.
A number of orders for September/October was not given. This was the response to a question a journo had during Bowen’s leave.
Context for the Minister’s press conference
27/7/26
Saudi Arabia Blames Iran-Backed Militias for Attack on Oil Facilities (Abqaiq)
Fig 5 Abqaiq unusual emergency flaring
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-blames-iran-backed-militias-for-attack-on-oil-facilities-eb6cf40c
This is Abqaiq, the largest processing facility in Saudi Arabia (7 mb/d !!). This is not normal flaring. It is emergency flaring which suggests that the facility had to be shut down quickly. In the meantime, pics have emerged about the damage to the facility itself and the pumping station which fills the 1st leg of the East-West pipeline. This is the same facility which was hit in 2019:
1/10/2019
The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak Oil in Ghawar
http://crudeoilpeak.info/the-attacks-on-abqaiq-and-peak-oil-in-ghawar
But the July 2026 attack is much more serious.
31/7/26
Abqaiq Is a Warning That Oil Markets May Be Misreading
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Abqaiq-Is-a-Warning-That-Oil-Markets-May-Be-Misreading.html
29/7/26
Drone attack caused fire on gas ships at Mediterranean port, Egypt says
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39ez3klwmro
This is a message that the Houthis and/or Iran can also close the Suez canal.
Media coverage
The MSO graph (Fig 8) appeared on the website right on time around 9 am
An hour later ABC Breakfast showed a short clip but only the questions, not the data. That was strange.
Fig 6: Minister Bowen in front of his electoral office
This is a “press conference” on a very important crisis? It couldn’t be more-low key, casual. It tells you everything about how the Minister wants to keep everything appear as usual. Look how many journos were interested. The proper location would have been a community hall with a well-publicized time and public access.
Fig 7: Screen shot from the 7 pm news 1 Aug 2026
The fuel update featured prominently in the evening news. Again no details were given on the 3.1 bn liters in the next 4 weeks. The focus was the advice that motorists should not panic buy ahead of the fuel excise discount ending Sunday midnight. Presenter: “Clock ticking on fuel relief …. It’s curtains for the fuel excise …. Good bye for the discounted heavy vehicle road user charge….prices are expected to start creeping up from Monday”
Chis Bowen: “I would imagine obviously it will take some time for the market to respond…. When we see massive increases in demand all of a sudden that’s what puts huge pressure on the supply chain.”
Indeed. How about the increase of diesel demand from big, unnecessary, energy consuming projects?
Conclusion:
No matter what happens in the Middle East, the Minister’s message is always the same: continue business as usual
Appendix
Press conference, Fairfield West, New South Wales
1 August 2026
MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the war in the Middle East continues to rage on, but the other thing that continues is Australia’s fuel security, which I can report – as I have each Saturday, since March – continues to be secure and in good shape. Australia currently has 43 days worth of petrol on hand, which is one day more than last week’s update. We have 39 days worth of diesel, which is also one day more than last week’s update, and 34 days worth of jet fuel, which is two days more than last week’s update. We have 44 ships on the water on the way to Australia with fuel, and we have 3.1 billion litres locked in to be delivered over the next four weeks, which is consistent with every other report that I’ve given. So the situation continues to remain.
I speak, as I have done all through this crisis, very regularly with the chief executives of Australia’s oil companies, and while obviously the situation internationally remains challenging, it remains the case that no orders to Australia have been cancelled, and that orders continue to be locked in through September and into October. So this is consistent with the reports I’ve given each week, since March, that Australia’s fuel security, government and industry working together, and with our trading partners, continues to be in good shape, and Australians can continue to buy the fuel that they need. And consistently we’ve asked, take no more, no less than the fuel you need to get you through. And we’ll continue with these updates, unless and until the international situation is resolved.
Over to your questions, I’ll go to journalists here first, and then onto the phone.
JOURNALIST: How much more can motorists expect to pay for fuel from Monday?
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-6
Questions continued on the fuel excise, panic buying, ACCC monitoring filling stations, the heavy vehicle road use charge and delays with EFA supported orders both fertilizer and fuel. The Minister also gave an update on Snowy 2 which he said is 50% complete.
Fig 8: Chart from the DCCEEW website published 1 Aug 2026
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics
Previous post:
25/7/26
Australian Energy Minister at ease despite Hormuz closure and detour of Saudi tankers to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-energy-minister-at-ease-despite-hormuz-closure-and-detour-of-saudi-tankers-to-asia-via-the-cape-of-good-hope
Related post:
https://crudeoilpeak.info/tankers-arriving-and-departing-in-sydney
