History of events which impact on tanker traffic
US-Iran MOU – expired
18/6/26
4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding
Rabobank
1 July 2026
Hormuz traffic is climbing, but refined product prices are lagging, and crack spreads are blowing out: one can’t just look at the oil price to understand the overall energy dynamic. On the geopolitical front, things are also still mixed. Talks about the US-Iran MoU in Doha, without either side speaking to the other, went well according to the US, who are staying on for what could be indirect talks today. However, the Wall Street Journal reports Iran is split, with political leadership focused on getting assets unfrozen and the IRGC on keeping Hormuz more frozen. Tehran has now rejected third-party offers to help demine the water way; they are in no hurry to see things return to normal as this removes their energy leverage. Iran is also opposed to allowing the southern passage via Oman, which the US favours, to become established – and there are still reports Oman wants to charge for access to this channel.
https://media.rabobank.com/asset/ce0c0490-a627-4cd5-936e-8ffcff31e6ee/global_daily_still_the_military_base_case.pdf
8/7/26
US launches fresh strikes against Iran after three tankers hit by ‘projectiles’ in Strait of Hormuz
One US official said the military was targeting Iranian air defence systems, coastal surveillance systems, ground-to-air missiles as well as launch sites for anti-ship cruise missiles and drones. Iranian port facilities are also being targeted.
A second official said the strikes would likely last for hours.
Hours later, the US revoked a licence that had authorised the sale of Iranian oil. The Treasury Department issued the 60-day licence last month, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil as part of an interim agreement to end the fighting.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-08/three-tankers-struck-in-strait-of-hormuz/106891128
9/7/26
At the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2074950507186032971
10/7/26
Iran targets US military sites in Gulf as Israel warns it could ‘strike again’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-10/iran-us-trade-strikes-/106899742
11/7/26
Iran denies requesting US talks, while Donald Trump says ceasefire is ‘over’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-11/trump-flags-us-iran-talks-but-says-ceasefire-is-over/106904360
12/7/26
US attacks Iran over strike in Strait of Hormuz, Tehran responds by hitting Arab states
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-12/iran-revolutionary-guard-closes-strait-hormuz-centcom-us-strikes/106906666
14/7/26
Iran war live: United States reinstates blockade against Iranian maritime traffic, resumes strike
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-14/iran-united-states-war-blog-july-14-2026/106912082
15/7/26
Iran war live: US resumes strikes on southern Iran as naval blockade takes effect
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-15/iran-united-states-war-blog-july-15-2026/106915662
16/7/26
US launches new strikes at Iranian military targets in bid to secure Strait of Hormuz
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-15/us-launches-strikes-on-greater-tunab-island/106920392
16/7/26
Warning of IEA’s Fatih Birol: weeks, not months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-07-16/iea-chief-on-strait-closure-impact-video
17/7/26
Iran tells Houthis to block Red Sea if Trump hits power plants | ABC NEWS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KB72vRucCM4
18/7/26
US and Iran attack infrastructure as strait shipping comes under further attack
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-18/us-and-iran-attack-civilian-infrastructure-in-latest-strikes/106931002
18/7/26
U.S. Completes 8th Consecutive Night of Strikes Against Iran
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2078685229418483982
21/7/26
Houthis declare maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, escalating threat to energy supplies
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-20/houthis-declare-maritime-blockade-on-saudi-arabia/106938064
21/7/26
U.S. Forces Complete 11th Night of Strikes Against Iran
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2079727235431371205
24/7/26
Oil prices back to more than $US100 a barrel after Houthi attacks in Red Sea
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-24/oil-prices-houthi-iran-us-donald-trump/106952390
23/7/26
U.S. Concludes 13th Night of Strikes on Iranian Military Targets
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2080463031289380910
23/7/26
Houthis say they attacked two Saudi tankers; Saudi Arabia says one ablaze in Red Sea
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-targeted-two-saudi-oil-tankers-2026-07-22/
26/7/26
Hopes US and Iran will return to negotiating table after lull in hostilities
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-26/us-iran-war-lull-leads-to-hope-for-return-to-negotiations/106959956
27/7/26
Saudi Arabia Blames Iran-Backed Militias for Attack on Oil Facilities (Abqaiq)
30/7/26
Trump says Iran will ‘get a beating’ in retaliation for attack on bases in Jordan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-30/trump-vows-to-hit-iran-hard-after-jordan-attack/106974104
31/7/26
Abqaiq Is a Warning That Oil Markets May Be Misreading
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Abqaiq-Is-a-Warning-That-Oil-Markets-May-Be-Misreading.html
31/7/26
‘Significant Shrinking’ in Crude Cushion In Coming Months – Vortexa
https://gcaptain.com/significant-shrinking-in-crude-cushion-in-coming-month-vortexa/
6/8/26
Houthis escalate attacks in Red Sea and on Saudi Arabia, Riyadh evaluates options
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/08/houthis-escalate-attacks-in-red-sea-and-on-saudi-arabia-riyadh-evaluates-options.php
7/8/26
Proposed Hormuz passage deal not feasible for shipping industry, sources say
– Iran seeks fees of 5% to 7% of cargo price, senior Iranian source says
– New war risk clause terminates cover for vessels that pay Hormuz transit fees
– U.S. sanctions on Iran’s strait authority create compliance risks for shippers, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/proposed-hormuz-passage-deal-not-feasible-shipping-industry-sources-say-2026-08-06
7/8/26
Saudi Arabia expects imminent coordinated attacks from the north and south by Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis under the supervision of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a senior Saudi official said on Thursday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-expects-imminent-attacks-north-south-senior-official-says-2026-08-06/
UKMTO
VOLUNTARY REPORTING AREA OVERVIEW
7 Aug 2026
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260807-ukmto_vra_overview.pdf?rev=1726563109f34d9e8168a64cd34e14c9
8/8/26
Iran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Six Sweeping Demands
The six demands include an end to U.S. threats and military action, a permanent end to the war, withdrawal of U.S. naval and air forces from around Iran, compensation for war damages, sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Says-Hormuz-Stays-Closed-Until-US-Meets-Six-Sweeping-Demands.html
11/8/26
Earlier today, CENTCOM forces disabled the steering gear of Panama-flagged M/V Vela Nova as the cargo vessel attempted to transit the Gulf of Oman and violate the U.S. blockade against Iran by sailing toward an Iranian port.
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2087251919555248599
UKMTO
VOLUNTARY REPORTING AREA OVERVIEW
14 Aug 2026
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20260814-ukmto_vra_overview.pdf
24 Aug 2026 UKMTO warning: Tanker attacked offshore Oman
https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/2092012453773123932/photo/1
24 Aug 26
Cost to Ship a VLCC Through Hormuz Hits $20 Million, TotalEnergies CEO Says
TotalEnergies Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said the company is buying barrels at $50 to $60 inside the Persian Gulf as producers are desperate to get their supplies onto the market following six months of conflict. The additional freight costs for a supertanker equate to about $10 a barrel, he said. Benchmark Brent futures were trading above $90 on Monday.
https://gcaptain.com/cost-to-ship-a-vlcc-through-hormuz-hits-20-million-totalenergies-ceo-says/
Commodity Vessel Transits Through Strait of Hormuz Hit Three-Month Low, Data Shows
SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) – Just two tankers transited the key energy chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, for the lowest daily tally of commodity vessels since early May, with both entering the Gulf, shipping data showed.
Separate provisional data from shiptracker Vortexa showed that Monday oil transits at 5 million barrels per day. On a seven-day moving average, Hormuz transits stand at around 6 million to 7 million bpd by August 23.
https://gcaptain.com/commodity-vessel-transits-through-strait-of-hormuz-hit-three-month-low-data-shows/
31 Aug 2026
US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the first US military action in more than a month.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say they retaliated by attacking US bases in Jordan with ballistic missiles, which Jordan said it intercepted.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-31/middle-east-war-us-strikes-launched-iran-larak-island/107096404
3 Sep 2026
Red Sea Coastal Battles Intensify Raising New Concerns for Shipping
In an alarming development, the NRF reports that on the same busy day, they intercepted a large consignment of Iranian arms destined for the Houthis on board a dhow in the Red Sea. If this is verified, it suggests that the IRGC arms smugglers of Unit 190 can still slip past the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Aden in small dhows. Or more likely, that they have employed their well-practiced flexibility and use of drug-smuggling routes to find arms shipment corridors to the Horn of Africa, and thence by dhow across the Red Sea.
https://maritime-executive.com/article/red-sea-coastal-battles-intensify-raising-new-concerns-for-shipping
