This is a continuation of a series of articles on Australia’s fuel imports which have fundamentally increased due to the closure of local refineries and also growing demand from very high rates of immigration. The focus of this post is jet fuel.
Iran’s attack on the US Al Udeid base in Qatar with 14 medium range missiles (matching the number of US bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities) have shown how fragile air traffic is.
The website War Zone describes how Qatar was protected:
Largest Patriot Missile Salvo In U.S. Military History Launched Defending Al Udeid Air Base Against Iranian Attack
Updated 26 June 2025
As Iranian ballistic missiles were flying toward a nearly empty Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, a small crew of air defenders stayed behind to protect the largest American military installation in the Middle East. Thursday morning, Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered new details about that effort, which he said resulted in the largest single-event launch of Patriot interceptors in U.S. military history.
The Patriot crews defending Al Udeid at this point were deployed from Korea and Japan “as part of our U.S. forces there to ensure that we had the most capable missiles in the CENTCOM area of responsibility,”
….Adding to that stress on the troops is that their air defense battery would be at the top of Iran’s targeting list in a ballistic missile attack. Taking out the Patriots would have enabled a much easier path for the rest of the missiles and left the base vulnerable for follow-on attacks.
“And we were joined in this engagement by the Qatari Patriot crews.”
…he estimated that there were between two and four interceptors fired per incoming missile
https://www.twz.com/land/largest-patriot-salvo-in-u-s-military-history-launched-defending-al-udeid-air-base-against-iranian-missiles
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1937294574294090130
One missile hit the US base but caused only minor damage and no casualties.
The web site Energy Intelligence wrote:
Qatar in the Crosshairs
26 June 2025
• The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran has exposed the Mideast Gulf’s vulnerability, putting the spotlight in particular on Qatar’s energy infrastructure and trade.
• Despite the attack on the Al-Udeid US air base in Qatar, Doha appeared to play a key role in brokering the ceasefire and could mediate in the next round of mooted US-Iran talks.
• But the incident has also highlighted the unpredictable risks created by the conflict, Qatar being the Mideast Gulf country with the strongest ties to Iran.
https://www.energyintel.com/00000197-a7fe-ddb0-a797-efff05140000
The Australian public broadcaster immediately declared the missile strike as “symbolic”. The public should not be alarmed. Over the long run, this has bread complacency in a country seemingly so far away from the world’s zones of conflict (but only 4 tanker weeks away)
24 June 2025
Iran has decided to retaliate to the US attack on its nuclear sites with a symbolic and overtly telegraphed strike that has caused no casualties.
Iran gave advance notice that allowed the US base to be evacuated and Qatar’s air defences to be prepared, with Patriot batteries in the Gulf state shooting down the Iranian missiles.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-24/irans-strikes-on-qatar-look-like-escalation-but-they-may-not-be/105452410
For the Patriot crews it was not symbolic. Neither for the shoppers in this Qatar shopping mall:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/n-gG5gw9OIk
Jet fuel intelligence:
Airlines Faced Extreme Risk Level Traversing Middle Eastern Airspace
27 June 2025
The risks for airlines traversing airspace across the Middle East have never been as severe as during the last two weeks, according to Mathew Borie, chief intelligence officer at Osprey Flight Solutions. His company raised the level of risk to “extreme at all altitudes” for all flight operations over Israel, Yemen, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan after Israel launched attacks against Iran on Jun. 13. That risk assessment remained for 12 days until a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced following the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites on Jun 24.
https://www.energyintel.com/jet-fuel-intelligence-search
Fig 1: Flight Radar on 24 June 2025
Open letter from CEO to passengers ‘who place their trust in Qatar Airways’
26 June 2025
Qatar Airways’ Group Chief Executive Officer Engr. Badr Mohammed Al-Meer has written an open letter to passengers addressing the recent attack, thanking them for their support and assuring them that their “trust is not taken lightly”.
“This week brought an operational crisis few airlines will ever encounter, and one that challenged the very core of what it means to run a global airline,” he wrote.
On Monday, Qatari airspace forced Qatar Airways to suspend global operations with Hamad International Airport, one of the world’s busiest global hubs, brought to a standstill. At the time, almost 100 aircraft were en route to Doha, with several already on approach to runways, and others lining up for departure. Airspace also closed in Bahrain, the UAE and Kuwait soon after.
“At the time, over 90 Qatar Airways flights carrying more than 20,000 passengers to Doha, were forced to divert immediately. 25 flights diverted into airports across Saudi Arabia, 18 into Turkey, 15 into India, 13 into Oman, and 5 into the United Arab Emirates. The remaining aircraft were re-routed to major hubs including London, Barcelona, and others across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.”
https://travelweekly.com.au/open-letter-from-qatar-airways-ceo-to-passengers-who-place-their-trust-in-qatar-airways/
Fig 2: The US had moved its aircraft before its attack on Iran’s nuclear sites
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250619-us-military-aircraft-no-longer-visible-at-base-in-qatar-satellite-images
Of course the Iranian missile attack was risky. Imagine it had hit It was more than that. Iran had to respond for domestic and international prestige reasons but did not want an all-out escalation.
The underlying problem, Iran’s nuclear program is not solved. A debate rages now how much of Iran’s program has been destroyed, how much has been saved at secret locations and how long it will take for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon with this material and equipment out of sight from the IAEA
Iran could resume enriching uranium within months, UN nuclear watchdog boss says
30/6/2025
Iran could resume producing enriched uranium in months, according to comments made by the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog that have raised more doubts about the efficacy of US strikes on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Officials in the United States have repeatedly stated that the strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities “obliterated” them, although President Donald Trump said on Friday that he would consider bombing the Middle Eastern nation again if it was enriching uranium to worrisome levels.
Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told CBS News in an interview on Sunday that Iran’s capabilities to resolve any damage to its nuclear program do not appear to have been wiped out.
“The capacities they have are there. They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that,” he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-30/iran-could-enrich-uranium-within-months-iaea-says/105475434
We need to prepare for the next oil crisis
Fig 3: Australian jet fuel imports
The dip in 2020 was caused by the Wuhan virus. We may see another dip if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted or reduced because around 80% of oil flows through there goes to Asia.
Fig 4: Half of jet fuel imports depend on the Middle East
This percentage of dependency is similar to that of diesel imports calculated in the previous post.
Fig 5: Domestic and international jet fuel consumption
Jet fuel consumption in 2024 is back to where it was in 2019 but the previous growth trend in international flights was broken by the Wuhan virus. That’s the result of high rates of immigration, costing Australia around 200 ML/month.
Fig 6: Jet fuel imports and refinery production
Fig 7: Detailed jet fuel imports by country
Fig 8: Australian jet fuel consumption cover
Current jet-fuel consumption cover is around 20 days. It was only higher during the Wuhan virus period because consumption dropped not because storage capacity was increased. So when hostilities in the Middle East continue flying there will not only become dangerous again but we may run out of jet fuel if this crisis lasts longer than 12 days.
Look at Sydney’s high risk project:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sydney_International_Airport
The new Western Sydney Airport is planned to open in 2026. Good luck. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott who approved the airport in April 2014 was oil illiterate. Some other details were given in this previous post:
28 Jan 2024
Fly, money, fly. Australian jet fuel import bills skyrocket
https://crudeoilpeak.info/fly-money-fly-australian-jet-fuel-import-bills-skyrocket
