Fig 1: Australian petrol imports
We can see that petrol imports from Singapore almost tripled after 2020/21 when the Wuhan virus hit. However, Singapore’s refinery output has not increased.
Fig 2: Singapore refinery input/output
https://www.ema.gov.sg/resources/singapore-energy-statistics/chapter2
Singapore is a huge oil trading hub. It would require a more detailed analysis to find out where Australia’s increased petrol import share comes from.
Fig 3: Petrol import dependency on the Middle East is 52%
Fig 4: Petrol imports in last 2 years by month
Fig 5: Petrol consumption cover is around 1 month
Fig 6: Ethanol share in petrol sales
This is not a transition to biofuels if that was the objective.
Fig 7: The decline in petrol consumption has stalled
This would also require a detailed analysis. Factors bringing demand down are aging of population, work from home trends, higher fuel efficiency and transition to EVs. While immigration, growing commuting distances in ever growing capital cities and urban sprawl cause an increase in petrol consumption.
Australia’s fuel import dependencies are particularly worrying as there is no solution to the Middle East crisis in sight. Iran’s missile and nuclear program are financed by China’s oil imports.
