In his latest research on shale oil French oil geologist Jean Laherrere from ASPO France
http://aspofrance.viabloga.com/texts/documents
estimates a Bakken shale oil peak in 2014
He uses a Hubbert linearization to calculate a total of 2,500 mb to be produced
In global terms, a total cumulative of 2.5 Gb is just around 10% of annual crude production and 1.3% of daily production.
Well productivity in Bakken is stagnant at around 130 b/d for a couple of years now.
There has been a peak in the number of drilling rigs. A shift of the rigs curve by 2 years suggests a production peak in 2014.
Jean’s research is in line with that published by David Hughes in November 2013:
http://legacy.firstenergy.com/UserFiles/HUGHES%20First%20Energy%20Nov%2019%202013.pdf
Update August 2014:
Ultimate between 2.5 and 4 Gb
Ultimate 2.2 Gb
Laherrere writes:
“…I have changed the shift [number of rigs to production] from 20 months to 30 months and the correlation oil/rig, but I feel uncertain about the reliability of such graph…….My new model forecasts ND oil production peak in 2015 at less than 1.2 Mb/d, but again this new model could be wrong as the old one.”
http://peakoilbarrel.com/bakken-oil-peak-jean-laherrere/
