Political debate
The NSW power shortage problem made it to the Question time in Parliament
Wednesday, 27 November 2024 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
It so happened that 3 bills on a “Future Made in Australia” were discussed on this day, together with what type of energy would be needed for such a policy. The debate is locked into “nuclear (Opposition) versus renewables (Federal Government)”. Here are 2 typical contributions:
Mr JOYCE (New England) (10:56): “But, if we’re going to go down the path of zero emissions, if that’s the goal, if that’s the grand nirvana, then you’ve got to have 24/7 spinning capacity at zero emissions, and the only way you’re going to get that is with a different rock boiling steam to turn a turbine. We used to use a black rock called coal; now we’re going to have to use a different rock called uranium. There are no other tricks to this.”
Mr BIRRELL: I’m really happy that this debate is happening because it didn’t previously. But I wish it was a bit more of a sensible debate in this place about nuclear energy. It’s one of the tools that can help get us to a cleaner energy future and make sure that we have the baseload power for a genuine future made in Australia. We are up against countries that are using this technology to power their factories, to make sure their factories have got enough electricity.
QUESTIONS WITHOUT NOTICE
Energy Mr TED O’BRIEN (Fairfax) (14:00): My question goes to the Prime Minister. The Australian Energy Market Operator is right now scrambling to avoid blackouts by cutting deals with factories to temporarily shut down, and the New South Wales Premier is asking residents ‘not to run your dishwasher, not to run your washing machine this afternoon’. Prime minister, is this what Labor’s plan for a ‘renewable energy superpower’ really will look like?
Mr ALBANESE (Grayndler—Prime Minister) (14:01): I thank the honourable member for the question, because it gives me an opportunity to update the House on the situation in New South Wales this afternoon. As the House is aware, New South Wales is undergoing a lengthy and severe heat wave, which is, of course, increasing demand on the energy system. It’s a statement of fact: when there’s a heat wave, energy demand goes up. In addition, in New South Wales there are five units of coal and gas production that are not operating. Two of them were unexpected breakdowns in coal-fired power units. Of course, that has added to pressures in New South Wales. It is the case that a lack of reserve notice has been issued. This is not an unusual circumstance; this is AEMO doing its job. In fact, in the last quarter of the Morrison government, lack of reserve notices were administered 36 times, and, in the quarter before that, 55 times. As a result of the lack of reserve notice that AEMO have issued, I’m advised that they have secured extra supplies as a result of the situation that is commonly put in place, which is to provide extra supplies. AEMO have advised me that there are enough reserves for New South Wales this afternoon. Of course, they are taking necessary precautions in case there is another unexpected outage of a coal-fired unit, which is always a risk.
Fact check: It is correct that AEMO issues lack of reserve (LOR) notices in order to seek a market response. There are
- forecast LORs and actual LORs
- 3 levels of LORs. LOR1 is the lowest level and LOR3 is imminent load shedding.
What the Parliament (and the public) is not being told is how many lack of reserve notices were issued on this day and how serios these notices were. In the morning there was even a LOR3 forecast (notice 121 021), later converted to a LOR2 forecast (notice 121 057) in which the requirement was 730 MW while only 5 MW were available (see Fig 5 in part 1)
There were not enough reserves as load shedding of the Tomago alu smelter took place
AEMO has also advised me that batteries will play a very important role this afternoon in New South Wales. As you would expect, Mr Speaker, during the day they are absorbing energy, and they will be called upon this evening. That is the advice of AEMO. So it would be disingenuous and dishonest to blame renewables when you have five units out, four of them coal, two of them breakdowns. We have not had a day in the last 18 months where there hasn’t been a breakdown a coal-fired power unit across the National Energy Market. The opposition choose to say that they would sweat the assets and rely more on those coal-fired power stations. What we say is that we will continue to roll out renewables and batteries to support this transition. The honourable member referred to a blackout in south-west New South Wales, which was resolved at nine o’clock this morning, which was not load shedding, which was not related to heat, which was not related to energy generation. It was because a transmission line was hit by a storm. The member for Fairfax might want to get better information.
Fact check: AEMO instructed 2 batteries to maintain storage levels:
(1) At 13:28 notice 121 067 to the Wallgrove battery in Western Sydney for 59 MWh (at 50-75 MW that is 0.8 hrs to 1.2 hrs). The latest NEM data are for October and 75 MWh was the maximum storage achieved.
https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/facility/au/NEM/WALGRV/?range=30d&interval=1d
(2) At 14:18 notice 121 083 to the Waratah battery (850 MW – 1,680 MWh) on the Central Coast for 96 MWh. (the previous days at 71 MW according to the above Wattclarity article under Fig 10 which would mean 1.3 hrs)
We do not know what the storage levels were before the instructions nor at how many MW and for how long any discharges were done. It can be guestimated that it was around 150 MW for 1 hr or so. (much less than the Tomago smelter with 300 MW x 4 hrs = 1,200 MWh).
The PM should have given these details to support the claim “that batteries will play a very important role this afternoon in NSW”
Press conference at Parliament House
27 November 2024
JOURNALIST: – why they’re looking at the prospect of blackouts today and throughout summer?
CHRIS BOWEN: Well, let’s just stick to the facts. The system is in place. Loss of Reserve notices are not a blackout. Loss of Reserve notices were quite common under the previous government. They are an indication that AEMO is getting more electricity into the system. That is working. Of course, when you’ve got a massive heatwave, you’re going to find pressure on energy systems, particularly in NSW, as we have five coal-fired power units down, three of which were expected, two of which are breakdowns, which is happening more and more in our energy system; breakdowns of coal fired power. We’ve got two units out in NSW at the moment. That needs careful management. AEMO is managing that carefully. Talking to the Federal and State governments, they have advised me that they believe, providing no other coal-fired power units break down today, there should be enough power in NSW today.
JOURNALIST: That’s a key condition though, isn’t it, providing no more breakdown, it’s –
CHRIS BOWEN: Well, I mean, you can always – there’s enough electricity in the NSW system today. Obviously, AEMO is always on the lookout for unexpected events which they need to prepare for. They’ve put all the necessary protections in place as they can at this point.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-parliament-house-0
Fact check: This was not a massive heat wave. According to the Bureau of Meteorology:
A heatwave is when the maximum and minimum temperatures are unusually hot over 3 days. This is compared to the local climate and past weather.
It takes more than a high daily maximum temperature to make a heatwave. It’s also about how much it cools down overnight.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/knowledge-centre/understanding.shtml
Fig 4 in part1 of this post shows the temperature of 32.9 was limited to one day. The real heatwaves in summer are still to come.
The BOM’s seasonal model predicts the mean temperature across the country will land at about 1.5C above the baseline 1961—1990 average, which would comfortably position the upcoming summer in the top five hottest on record.
Uncomfortably that is.
Thursday, 28 November 2024 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Energy Mr McCORMACK (Riverina) (14:37): My question is to the Minister for Climate Change and Energy. Responding to the New South Wales electricity blackouts yesterday, Premier Chris Minns was forced to concede that: Solar production in the energy market starts to come off at 3pm, exactly when people start to return home. So if you could not use your pool filter, dishwasher, or washing machine between 3pm and 8pm, you’d be helping the grid. Minister, this was just one moderately hot day before summer. Is this what Australian families can expect under Labor’s reckless race to 82 per cent renewable energy by 2030?
In line with Australia’s emissions reduction target of 43% from 2005 level by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050, the Minister for Climate Change and Energy set an ambition to get to 82% renewables share of electricity nationally by 2030. In progressing this agenda, the government is heavily investing in electricity network upgrades and storage, facilitating a faster transition to renewables through Powering Australia.
Mr BOWEN (McMahon—Minister for Climate Change and Energy) (14:37): I thank my honourable friend for the question. Yesterday I outlined to the House the situation in New South Wales, which was that five power plant units were down—four coal and one gas—three to be expected and two breakdowns. And that did put pressure on the system. Now, it takes a particular level of prejudice against renewable energy to say that coal-fired power station breakdowns are caused by renewable energy. I’m not quite sure of the logic there! But I’m sure those opposite have an explanation as to how that occurred. It’s all the fault of renewable energy again! I know that those opposite are disappointed that yesterday there actually were enough energy reserves in New South Wales and there were no blackouts caused by lack of energy. That comes as a considerable disappointment to the member for Fairfax in particular, who wakes up every morning, turns the light switch on and is disappointed when the lights come on, because he’s more interested in political power than reliable power
We witness here the political football game over energy ahead of the Federal election in 2025. The loadshedding of Tomago was not mentioned.
What was also not mentioned is the other work AEMO was forced to do
Enel X describes how it works:
What is Demand Response?
Demand Response allows commercial, industrial or institutional organisations to offer their capacity to support the electricity grid in exchange for regular payments. It helps to balance the intermittency of variable wind and solar power by providing instant, dispatchable capacity to the grid when called on. Businesses respond by powering down or switching to a backup power source to give their capacity back to the grid. They do this via our Virtual Power Plant (VPP) which has unmatched access to a range of market programs.
https://www.enelx.com/au/en/demand-response
In other words: this is voluntary load shedding.
The Federal Opposition wants to go for nuclear power which they think could be built by 2035/37 (“coal to nuclear transition”). When their previous leader, climate and energy agnostic Prime Minister John Howard was in power he commissioned the so-called UMPNER report published in 2006 with the conclusion it would take 15 years to develop a nuclear industry in Australia.
Fig 31 UMPNER report
But Howard took no action and his government ended in 2007 after defeated at an election because of a lack of climate policy. So that gives us an idea about indecisions and the length of debating club cycles. Now Howard said in July 2024 that the opposition shows “great boldness” in campaigning on nuclear power. It is very late now as coal plants are reaching the end of their lives. This the latest (Oct 2024) list of closure years in NSW:
Fig 32: Table with closure dates of NSW coal power plants
https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-planning-data/generation-information
Crunch time will come when it will be too expensive to repair and/or maintain the plants or there are no more spare parts.
In part 5 we’ll look at the consequences for town planning
