Quick primer on Libyan oil

– February 23, 2011Posted in: Libya

Libya produced 1.65 mb/d of crude oil in Oct. 2010 and exported 1.2 mb/d crude in 2008. Both crude production and exports have recently peaked.

Libya is a maturing oil province in which 27 Gb have been produced, out of an estimated ultimate of 40-60 Gb. Therefore, the depletion midpoint has been reached or will be reached in this decade. Due to the low population (6.5 million) and a local consumption of petroleum products of just 250 kb/d Libya will remain an oil exporter for a long time to come even when taking into account population growth and higher per capita consumption rates. However, we do not know to which extent the current unrest will impact on future oil production.

Libyan oil exports 2009 to:

Italy: 425 kb/d

Germany: 178 kb/d

France: 133 kb/d

Spain: 115 kb/d

US: 80 kb/d

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Libya/Oil.html

History:

1955 Petroleum Law, entry of British and American oil companies

1957 First oil discovery: light crude in Zelten, Sirte basin

1959 Discoveries: Amal 4.5 Gb, Beda 1 Gb, Nasser 1 Gb

1961 BP finds remote giant Serir field, 5 Gb

1960 Discovery Defa 2 Gb

1961: Discovery Gialo 3.5 Gb, Sarir 6 Gb, Waha 1 Gb

1962 Libya joins OPEC

1965 Discovery Augila-Nafoora 2 Gb

1967: Discovery Intisar 2.25 Gb

1967 Libyan oil gains strategic importance after 6-day war

1968 Discovery Bu Attifel 1.5 Gb

1969 King Idris ousted by by Colonel Gaddafi

1970 Oil production peak at 3.3 mb/d

1970s Nationalisation of oil industry results in production decline

1973 OPEC embargo on oil exports

1977 War with Egypt

1978 War with Chad starts (Aouzou strip, until 1987)

1980s OPEC quotas introduced, quota is now 1.5 mb/d

1986 US aerial attack

1988 Pan Am explodes over Lockerbie

1993 UN sanctions banning import of refinery equipment, 1996 US trade sanctions

2002 Oil output increased due to an international re-orientation

2004 Tony Blair shakes hands with Gaddafi, US sanctions lifted

2008 Libya-Italy friendship treaty ($5 bn compensation from Italy for colonial occupation)

Map of oil fields

From: http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2005/weo2005.pdf page 446

This production profile is the result of nationalisation, embargos, sanctions and many other disruptive events

Refinery at Ras Lanuf (220 kb/d)

Ras Lanuf township http://www.panoramio.com/photo/27120995

http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/north_africa_oil_gas_products_pipelines_map.html

Oil reserve history (BP Statistical Review) and cumulative production (27.4 Gb in 2009)

How unrealistic the above official reserve data are is shown in the following creaming curves by Jean Laherrere using IHS and Wood Mackenzie discoveries pointing towards ultimates of between 40 Gb and 60 Gb. ASPO (Colin Campbell) has an ultimate of 55 Gb which would mean the depletion mid-point is reached in 2011.