T3 Bankstown line to close from Monday
26 Sep 2024
The closure of the T3 Bankstown line between Sydenham and Bankstown will begin from Monday 30 September to convert the line to Metro.
“I want to continue to be very upfront with people – transforming this 130-year-old line for modern metro trains is a complex and difficult task, meaning it could take longer than 12 months
https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/t3-bankstown-line-to-close-from-monday
10 stations are affected: Marrickville, Dulwich Hill, Hurlstone Park, Canterbury, Campsie, Belmore, Lakemba, Wiley Park, Punchbowl and Bankstown with a 2021 population of around 170 K.
Closing down a perfectly well working rail line is the LAST thing you would do when there is a risk of an oil crisis.
Fig 1: Extract of Sydney Rail Network with Bankstown line closure annotated by author
https://transportnsw.info/document/7154/360x500_Onboard_SRM_20240701[94]c.pdf
Fig 2: Marrickville station (heritage listed) with a modern Waratah double deck train
Marrickville is the Federal constituency of the Prime Minister Albanese and the State constituency of the NSW Transport Minister Haylen (Summer Hill)
Trainspotting at Marrickville – 17/7/2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSb1Pil8yoA
There is no immediate need to convert this heavy rail line to a metro and it is definitely not urgent. As we shall see, no proper risk analysis was done.
A wider war involving a direct conflict between Israel and Iran may result in physical shortages, not just price shocks. This is the oil involved:
Fig 3: OPEC’s Middle East crude production
Asian oil import dependency
Asian crude oil imports are projected to surge to nearly 27 mb/d by 2026, requiring record levels of both Middle Eastern crude oil exports and Atlantic Basin production to fill the gap. The centre of gravity for refined products trade is also set to shift to Asia, resulting in the region’s oil import dependence rising to 82% by 2026
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2021
Wider Middle East war could spike oil prices and rekindle US inflation, experts say
A potential escalation of war in the Middle East could cause a dramatic rise in oil prices and rekindle U.S. inflation, triggering price increases for a range of essential goods from gasoline to plastic, analysts told ABC News.
25 Sep 2024
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wider-middle-east-war-spike-oil-prices-rekindle/story?id=113922941
After the killing of HAMAS’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh on 31 July 2024, the Institute for the Study of War wrote in a paper
1 August 2024
Iran and the Axis of Resistance are almost certainly considering how to cause greater damage to Israel than the April 2024 attack did since that attack failed to impose a serious cost on Israel and thus failed to deter. Iran and its allies fired around 170 one-way attack drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel in the April 2024 attack.
Iran is likely now planning for its next attack in order to establish deterrence with Israel while still avoiding a large-scale war. One of the most dangerous but increasingly likely scenarios is that Iran and the Axis of Resistance launch a combined, large-scale drone and missile attack that incorporates lessons from the April 2024 attack.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-1-2024
This revenge attack has not taken place yet but may be overdue as Israel continues to kill Hezbollah commanders and bomb Lebanon.
Israel tells its troops to prepare for a possible ground operation in Lebanon
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israel is preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon, its army chief said Wednesday as Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets across the border and a missile aimed at Tel Aviv that was the militant group’s deepest strike yet.
25 Sep 2024
https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-news-09-25-2024-62cb173728d341c845bff9859addc7a5
The situation is highly fluid. While publishing this post:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Thursday a proposal by the United States and France for a three-week cease-fire with Hezbollah, vowing to keep fighting “with full force.”
26 Sep 2024
https://www.politico.eu/article/benjamin-netanyahu-us-france-plan-for-israel-hezbollah-cease-fire/
Iran faces dilemma of restraint or revenge for attacks on ally Hezbollah
Many hardline conservatives in Iran are growing uneasy about its lack of action as Israel targets the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, their country’s closest and most long-standing ally.
When President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, he criticised Israel’s war in Gaza and warned that its attacks on Lebanon could not go unanswered.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clylgv2dk3yo
On 24 Sep 2024, ABC News Business heard Michael Every (Rabo Bank) saying that if Hezbollah and Iran attack Israel simultaneously Israel could decide to take out Iran’s oil.
at 12:15 min
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2406H138S00
One danger is a missile hitting Israel’s Ashdod refinery. The scenarios are endless.
However, Michael is too optimistic to think that this would not push up the oil market too high for too long due to weak demand fundamentals.
Fig 4: Australian diesel stocks
More details are here:
9 Aug 2024
Australia’s diesel import vulnerabilities update May 2024
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australias-diesel-import-vulnerabilities-update-may-2024
Metromania and the Bankstown line
When were the wrong decisions being made?
The project was inherited from the previous government. Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian made some disastrous decisions which damaged Sydney Trains and forced on the rail network the most expensive and least flexible urban rail option there is: driverless metros in deep tunnels where a single station costs $500m
Instead of …..
- Introducing single deck trains compatible with double deck trains to reduce dwell times (most economic solution allowing a seamless transition) using (and improving stagewise) all existing heavy rail infrastructure
And/or:
- Building separate, standalone metro lines (short distance commuting with frequent stops every 1,000 m or so – indeed a proper metro) connecting to heavy rail (long distance commuting) in interchanges – but leaving the heavy rail network untouched
….. she opted to unnecessarily convert the most modern rail tunnel at the time (Chatswood – Epping) and now the Bankstown line to driverless metros.
The Bankstown metro first appeared in:
SYDNEY’S RAIL FUTURE
Modernising Sydney’s Trains
June 2012
https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/documents/2017/sydneys-rail-future.pdf
This was then used in the North West Rail Link documentation:
Fig 5: Sydney’s rail future map Oct 2012
https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=SSI-5414%2120190227T040534.028%20GMT
Note the term “rapid transit” tier
From the EIS documentation on the
North West Rail Link – Stations, Rail Infrastructure & Systems
https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/north-west-rail-link-stations-rail-infrastructure-systems
we find in chapter 6 an artist’s impression of the rolling stock proposed:
Fig 6: Single deck design, no mention of a driverless metro
02_NWRL EIS Stage 2_ Chapter 6 (Part 1 of 2).pdf (on p 6-78)
Each train would have eight carriages and be capable of transporting up to 1,300 people. The rapid transit trains would …..be capable of being driven from both train ends.
https://majorprojects.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/prweb/PRRestService/mp/01/getContent?AttachRef=SSI-5414%2120190227T040534.028%20GMT
No mention of driverless metros. If the single deck design had been adhered to and made compatible with double deckers, there would not have been any need to convert existing heavy rail lines. But Sydney’s metromania had started.
In the Bankstown metro EIS published in 2017
https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/sydney-metro-sydenham-bankstown
we find following report with a comparison between double decker and single deckers:
Sydenham to Bankstown Upgrade
STATE SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE APPLICATION REPORT
7 September 2017
Fig 7: The dreaded debate: double vs single decker
The NSW government calculated theoretical line capacities as follows:
- 8-car single deck metro: 30 trains per hour x 1,500 (504 sitting) = 45,000/hr
- 8-car double deckers: 20 trains per hour x 1,200 (880 sitting) = 24,000/hr
Note that although the metro car has almost the same length as a double deck car, the image suggests that the metro car is 40% longer. This means metro cars will be much more crowded than double deckers. It is crystal clear that metros are not designed for long distance commuting.
This document also contains risk tables in chapter 7.4 (p 78) but it did not consider an oil crisis during the closure of the rail line. Nor were any calculations done how much car traffic will be replaced. In fact, the report mentions on p 19:
“Over the next 15 years, NSW will require infrastructure to support 40 per cent more train trips, 30 per cent more car trips and 31 per cent more households (NSW Government, 2015).”
These critical points were not covered in:
Sydney Metro Independent Review
Final Report Summary
14 Sep 2023
https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/system/files/media/documents/2024/Sydney-Metro-Independent-Review_Final-Report.pdf
Conclusion:
Les jeux sont faits. The NSW Transport Minister must now pray for 12 long months or more that there will not be an oil crisis. And that’s not all. More vulnerable conversion projects are in the pipeline. Glady’s wrong decision will now hang as a costly curse over all future planning for Sydney’s rail network. Next comes the heavy rail line to Leppington which would have to be extended to the Western Sydney Airport’s Bradford station, already under construction since 2022 for 25 KV AC metro style trains, incompatible with other metros at 1,500 V DC. And of course, there will be the question how that airport will perform under a global oil crisis scenario.
Update:
On Oct 1, an Iranian ballistic missile fell just 10 km short of the Ashdod refinery:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/school-in-gedera-severely-damaged-by-iranian-missile-impact/
On Oct 2, ABC Business heard Saul Kavonic from Credit Suisse warning of a possible Israeli revenge attack on the Iranian oil terminal on the Kharg island
https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2024-10-02/how-oil-supply-could-be-impacted-by-the-widening/104424192
Related posts:
11/3/2019
Sydney’s Immigration Metros (Part 1)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sydneys-immigration-metros-part-1
20/7/2017
Sydney planning chaos: New Planning Review makes no provision for light rail at Epping station (part 2)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sydney-planning-chaos-epr-part2
20/7/2017
Sydney planning chaos: New Planning Review makes no provision for light rail at Epping station (part 1)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sydney-planning-chaos-epr-part1
4/1/2015
Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sydney-mismanages-transition-to-driver-less-single-deck-trains-part-2
30/12/2014
Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sydney-plans-to-dismantle-rail-infrastructure-built-just-6-years-ago-part-1
