The Energy Minister’s calm approach

By
matt
– August 30, 2026Posted in: Australia, Brunei, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Shipping, Singapore, Sydney

MSO Update 25 Aug published 29 Aug 2026

CHRIS BOWEN: The Iran war is now six months old. When the Iran war started, Australians were understandably concerned about fuel security, and that was in no way helped by the scare campaigns run by the Liberal Party, the National Party, and One Nation. The government had the view that a calm and steady approach would see Australia’s fuel security strong and solid during this international challenge, of the worst energy crisis we’ve ever seen. And, six months on, I can report that remains the case

https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-nsw-2

The Minister may be forgiven for the obligatory, party-political swipe at the opposition repeated every week.

But in fact, during the first 3 months of the ongoing Middle East crisis the government was not calm at all. Thanks God. Shuttle diplomacy of the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister brought extra fuel imports from Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, South Korea, China and Japan:

9-11 April Prime Minister in Singapore

14-17 April Prime Minister in Brunei and Malaysia

17 April Conclusion of negotiations on the Protocol on Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies to the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA).

28 April Foreign Minister Penny Wong in Japan

29 April Foreign Minister Penny Wong in China to lift export curbs

30 April Foreign Minister Penny Wong in South Korea

3 May Visit of Japanese PM Takaichi in Canberra (Joint Statement on Energy Security)

17 August Visit of Thai PM Anutin Charnvirakul in Canberra (promise of jet fuel)

Remember:

19/4/2026
Australian crude and fuel imports from Brunei


https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-crude-and-fuel-imports-from-brunei

Some of these extraordinary efforts resulted in tankers having to wait for weeks on end to get a berthing slot (due to limited on shore tank capacity at ports and constraints in distribution logistics). This website first reported about one case:

23/6/26
The Odyssey of Panamax tanker GRAND WINNER 5 waiting for 3 weeks offshore Sydney
https://crudeoilpeak.info/the-odyssey-of-panamax-tanker-grand-winner-5-waiting-for-3-weeks-offshore-sydney

The mainstream media finally picked it up:

4/8/26
Labor’s plans to source more fuel leaves shipments stranded at sea
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/labor-s-plans-to-find-more-fuel-leaves-shipments-stranded-at-sea-20260802-p60krh

GRAND WINNER 5’s Odyssey – which finally clocked up a calm period of 8 weeks offshore Wollongong – ended in Jieyang on 27 August, after bringing a back load of fuel from PNG to Hong Kong:

Fig 1: GRAND WINNER 5 among dozens of tankers offshore Guangdong province

Fig 2: China’s product exports. Something for Energy Super Power Australia?

Let’s check what arrived from China in Sydney:
May: 1 Bitumen tanker, 1 LPG tanker, 1 Medium tanker
June: 1 AFRAMAX LR2 tanker
July: 1 PANAMAX LR1 tanker, 1 Medium tanker
August 1 Medium tanker

And while the Minister was holding his calm press conference the next candidate from South Korea (not China) is waiting since July 12th: HAFNIA MIKALA

Fig 3: Medium tanker HAFNIA MIKALA departed South Korea (KR YOS) on 26 June and was expected to arrive in Botany (AU BTB) on 12 July

One byproduct of the Minister’s calm approach is that he never refers to the current situation in the Middle East although this information would be very easy to obtain by looking at the twitter page of Marine Traffic:

Fig 4: Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb traffic
See animation here: https://x.com/MarineTraffic/status/2092576868889137262

Not to mention the Minister would come to any conclusion about the very likely scenario that the crisis will continue indefinitely and that this would have consequences for the portfolio of fuel consuming projects which are still being pursued as if Australia were on a different planet.

Now let’s just do the weekly graphs

CHRIS BOWEN: Australia has 41 days worth of petrol, which is five days more than when the Iran crisis began. 36 days worth of diesel, which is four days more than when the Iran crisis began, and 31 days worth of jet fuel, which is two days more than when the crisis began. We have 47 ships on the way to Australia, which is standard and in keeping with the flow that we’ve seen since the Iran war began. And we have 3.2 billion litres of fuel locked in to be delivered over the next four weeks

Stock held (in ML, not days)

Fig 5: Fuel stocks on a bumpy plateau as onshore/offshore storage is limited

Offshore storage is limited by the high daily cost of tankers.

Fig 5: Diesel stock estimated onshore is appr. 2,700 ML or 29 days

Fig 6: Jet fuel stock dropped to end March levels

Fig 7: Petrol stock also down to end March levels

Forward orders

Fig 8: Crude oil and fuel orders came down to July levels

Forget the Minister ever revealing the all-important diesel orders for the next 4 weeks. The columns with ?? marks are guesstimates.

Fig 9: Actual “shiploads received” for July were not quoted by the Minister

The grey columns of cumulative ship loads per month have been guesstimated for July and August.

Media

The Media are also calm… er, quiet. There were no questions on fuel security. Only topics of the day – federal policies on energy supply for data centres and questions outside the Minister’s portfolio (ban on social media, emergence of One Nation party)

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