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Author: matt

Matt Mushalik (MEAust, CPEng) Sydney

Egypt budget and current account deficits – can Saudi Arabia bail out Cairo?

Posted on December 23, 2015

Arab News reports: KSA pledges SR 30bn Egypt aid 17/12/2015 “JEDDAH: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman has ordered that Saudi Arabia’s aid and investment package to Egypt should be…

Egypt update: net oil importer and chokepoints

Posted on December 4, 2015

Oil production and consumption  Fig 1: Oil production vs consumption After a post-peak decline production has stabilized but consumption has increased relentlessly at a long-term 1.7% pa, slightly below population growth of…

IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mb/d less tight oil by 2020

Posted on November 16, 2015

You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb/d less US tight (shale)…

Iraq needs 1.3 mb/d additional oil exports and $US 70 oil to balance budget

Posted on October 30, 2015

The following graphs use data from the latest Article IV consultation report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  in August 2015. All IMF papers on Iraq are here. Government Revenues Fig…

Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price to be around $US 100 mark for the foreseeable future

Posted on October 18, 2015

The latest IMF Article IV consultation report on Saudi Arabia was published on 9 September 2015. http://www.imf.org/external/country/sau/ Extract: Government spending has increased substantially in recent years. Consequently, the breakeven oil price rose…

US shale oil too expensive, peaks 1H 2015

Posted on September 30, 2015

According to EIA data, monthly US crude oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.6 mb/d. Fig 1: US crude oil production to June 2015 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm The above graph shows that US…

Syria peak oil weakened government’s finances ahead of Arab Spring in 2011

Posted on September 14, 2015

While the attention of the world is on the refugee crisis we need to look at the causes of this mass exodus. Fig 1: Refugees walking on Hungarian motorway towards Austria in…

Europe oil consumption peaked 2005

Posted on August 11, 2015

This is the 3rd article using data from the BP Statistical Review published in June 2015 Fig 1: Western Europe oil consumption, oil prices in $2014 Total oil consumption peaked 3 times…

Asia depends on Middle East for 66 % of its oil imports

Posted on July 1, 2015

This post uses data from the inter area oil movement section of the BP Statistical Review published in June 2015. It is a continuation of an earlier post on Asian oil consumption…

Asia’s oil consumption at record high while production peaked in 2010

Posted on June 23, 2015

The annual BP Statistical Review has come out, as usual in June. In this post we focus on the Asia Pacific region. This is important because the Australian government has offered the…

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