China fuel exports suspension: Australia will have to replace 28% of its jet fuel imports from other countries

Australia’s  jet fuel imports:

Fig 1: Australian jet fuel imports

While the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked:

China urges refiners to suspend fuel exports amid Mideast war, sources say
SINGAPORE, March 5 (Reuters) – China has asked refiners to halt signing new contracts to export fuel and to try to cancel shipments already committed ‌as tight oil supply due to the Iran war curbs refinery output, several people with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday
The guidance does not apply to jet fuel for international flights, bonded bunkering or supplies to Hong Kong and Macau.
Impact expected for April
With most March exports already fixed, and the difficulty in recalling cargos the new directive is expected to cut into exports from April onwards.
At least 2 Chinese refineries – privately led Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp and Sinopec-operated Fujian refinery – have begun reducing throughput this month and more plants are expected to curb output as the ME conflict disrupts crude oil flows, sending prices surging.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-urges-refiners-suspend-fuel-exports-amid-mideast-conflict-sources-say-2026-03-05

Fig 2: Australia’s jet fuel imports from China since 2021

After the recovery and a stabilization phase from the Wuhan virus Australia’s average monthly jet fuel imports were 36 kb/d = 28% of total jet fuel imports since July 2023.

So Australia will have to look for new suppliers.

Australia also imported 20% of its jet fuel from Singapore, which is a net importer of jet fuel
Singapore turns net importer of jet fuel, while diesel net exports slip
Oct 23, 2025
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-turns-net-importer-jet-fuel-while-diesel-net-exports-slip-2025-10-23

So we’ll have to check what the latest data are for Singapore’s imports of jet fuel from China in order to calculate Australia’s full exposure. WIP

And this happens in the year in which the 2nd Sydney airport is to open

Grow in Sydney with WSI – opening 2026
https://www.wsiairport.com.au/Newsroom/grow-sydney-wsi-opening-2026

And read this:
What is the Government’s plan to provide jet fuel to Western Sydney Airport?
20 Nov 2019
The provision of jet fuel to Western Sydney Airport is a matter for the Federal Government. Preliminary work is currently being undertaken to identify route options for future fuel pipeline connection.
A Deloitte report commissioned by the Department of Infrastructure, Regional Development and Cities found that on opening in 2026, it will be most cost efficient to deliver fuel to the airport by truck and, on opening, Western Sydney Airport will require five fuel trucks per day.
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/la/papers/Pages/qanda-tracking-details.aspx

And the flight restrictions in the Middle East will reduce air traffic

So there will be a triple whammy.

Good luck.

It was oil and climate change illiterate Prime Minister Tony Abbott who approved this airport:
Tony Abbott confirms Badgerys Creek as site of second Sydney airport
Apr 15, 2014
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-confirms-badgerys-creek-as-site-of-second-sydney-airport-20140415-zqv0d.html