The quotes are from the Energy Minister’s press conference in Fairfield on 15 August (transcript see Appendix)
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Fig 1: Forward orders 4 Apr – 15 Aug 2026
Note the many question marks: these are data not given by the Minister. We do not know, for example, how many ML of diesel we can expect in the next 4 weeks. The standards of reporting have gone down.
Against a declining trend over the last 7 weeks, forward orders suddenly jumped by 700 ML – without explanation by the Minister. Question: have now extra, EFA supported orders been included which were proudly given separately up to and including June 20th – on top of the ordinary orders not requiring EFA support? See this article:
20 June 2026
Albanese Government reluctant to make public the open order balance of EFA supported fuel orders
The adding of extra and normal orders was done in the previous posts on this website but this makes no sense anymore because e.g. all extra orders from April and now also the 1st half of May should have arrived by now but that should be officially confirmed.
https://crudeoilpeak.info/albanese-government-reluctant-to-make-public-the-open-order-balance-of-efa-supported-fuel-orders
The problem with stranded tankers offshore and their tax-payer funded EFA support has been widely reported by the main stream media (e.g. the AFR on 4th August 2026) after this website had first identified it:
23/6/26
The Odyssey of Panamax tanker GRAND WINNER 5 waiting for 3 weeks offshore Sydney
https://crudeoilpeak.info/the-odyssey-of-panamax-tanker-grand-winner-5-waiting-for-3-weeks-offshore-sydney
Now another such case is coming up:
Fig 2: HAFNIA MIKALA on 15 Aug 2026 was supposed to berth on 12 July (AIS)
This tanker is not a newcomer to Australia and was in Botany Bay in April. It came back in July.
According to Port Botany daily vessel movements this tanker was first reported on 2 July to arrive at Kurnell KUR2 on 11 July and scheduled to depart on 13 July for Singapore. But that berthing never happened. On 6 July the arrival was scheduled for 20 July and on 17 July that was postponed for 30 July. It is set now for 30 August.
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Fig 3: Diesel days cover (Ministerial conferences)
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Fig 4: Diesel consumption cover (APS)
We see that the consumption cover in the APS statistics is much lower than that given by the Minister. This is because APS only counts stock on land and in domestic waters.
It is more useful to look at stock volumes:
Fig 5: Fuel stocks held 3 March – 11 Aug 2026
Data are from the weekly DCCEEW chart (see Appendix). We can see the current fuel supply system (both onshore tanks and offshore tankers) cannot hold much more than appr. 6 – 6.5 bn liters. Note that crude oil is not included for some strange reason. Crude oil in tanks of the 2 remaining refineries are much safer than fuel floating somewhere offshore, maybe even outside the EEZ.
Let’s have a look at the long-term trend of onshore/offshore stock
Fig 6: Crude & fuel stock onshore and offshore June 2018 – June 2026
The APS includes crude oil, but MSO does not which is the reason why the short black curve is lower. We can see on the graph that the category “overseas and awaiting delivery to Australia” has shrunk considerably compared to 2025, meaning it has become much harder to get at fuel.
Fig 7: Diesel stock held
Note the red line is from the more reliable and strict Australian Petroleum Statistics APS (latest version June 2026). Everything above the red line and the estimated dashed line is offshore beyond domestic waters around the ports.
The increase in diesel stock in April and May resulted from higher imports in these months.
Fig 8: Diesel imports comparison 2005 – June 2026
Fig 9: Diesel consumption 2025 – June 2026
In March there was increased consumption (panic buying?). Diesel consumption is “sticky”, back to last year.
Fig 10: Tankers on the way and shiploads received
The Minister did not give the number of shiploads received for July. The 81 shiploads is an estimate.
Conclusion
The MSO reporting deteriorates, reflecting a certain complacency which is unhelpful and results in the startup of fuel consuming projects which later may no longer be sustained.
Appendix
Transcript excerpt on fuel only
Press conference, Fairfield West, NSW
15 August 2026
MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, CHRIS BOWEN: Well, thanks for coming to Fairfield. I can report today that Australia has 41 days’ worth of petrol, which is one day less than last week; 37 days’ worth of diesel, which is one day more than last week; and 35 days’ worth of jet fuel, which is also one day more than last week.
We have 44 ships on the water to Australia and 3.7 billion litres of deliveries locked in for the next four weeks of various types of fuel. That’s 700 million litres more than last week.
So this continues to show that Australia’s fuel security situation is solid and secure in the face of the most difficult international circumstances in many, many years when it comes to fuel supplies.
Australia has been well placed all through this. Despite the Liberals and Nationals saying that rationing was inevitable, and One Nation calling for rationing, a cool, calm and collected approach has seen Australia’s fuel security continue to be strong in the face of these international challenges and pressures.
Happy to take questions……
(Questions on immigration and data centres)
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JOURNALIST: The arrangements that you’ve had with other countries to help fuel keeps flowing has (inaudible) through quicker than anybody expected or hoped, will there come a point where you need to negotiate with those countries that you have arrangements with to keep this supply going?
CHRIS BOWEN: No. I mean, we’ve been in constant contact with our trading partners all the way through. This is not a set-and-forget arrangement, and that has paid off. It’s paid off in terms of Australia’s fuel security continuing to be very strong, just as I’ve worked closely with Australian refiners.
We stay in close contact, of course. And this is the benefit of strong diplomacy that’s occurred under our government, having good relations with our trading partners. That’s something that the Anthony Albanese has prioritised. It’s something which has paid off in the difficulty of international times.
And as I said, as others warned of rationing, as Dan Tehan predicted shortages, as Barnaby Joyce called for rationing, we took the approach that we would just get on with it in a calm, methodical way.
And that’s exactly how we’ll keep going until this international crisis end, whenever that is.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-nsw-0
