In the first part we saw details of the Tomago smelter load shedding. In this post, let’s have a look at the coal plants:
Fig 10: Table showing availability of coal plants
The type of outage is from this Wattclarity article:
Which units are still offline in NSW and QLD, as of 3:30pm on 27th Nov 2024
27 Nov 2024
https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2024/11/which-units-are-still-offline-today-as-of-330pm-on-27th-nov-2024/
Compare that to March this year:
8 Mar 2024
Last hot summer day: ALL 12 coal powered units running at combined 90% of capacity
http://crudeoilpeak.info/last-hot-summer-day-in-nsw-all-12-coal-powered-units-running-at-combined-90-of-capacity
Performance and outage of coal plants
Fig 11: Bayswater generation over 3 days, quite steady
Fig 12: Bayswater BW02 planned outage started 5 Sep 2024
Fig 13: Bayswater BW03 unplanned forced outage started 21 Nov
Fig 14: Eraring generation over 3 days. The usual dips during daytime
Fig 15: Eraring ER03 in planned outage since Aug 2024
Remember that on 22 May 2024 the NSW government had signed an agreement with Origin Energy to continue to operate Eraring for another 2 years until August 2027, in response to warnings from AEMO.
https://www.energy.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-05/NSW-202405-Public-summary-of-Generator-Engagement-Project-Agreement.pdf
The underwriting is limited to 6 TWh pa which is appr. 40% of last year’s generation. Origin would have to opt into this scheme in March each year by submitting a maintenance plan. The government would pay 80% of any losses in the following financial year July-June, capped at $225m. This scheme comes too late for the 24/25 summer. Moreover, this ex-post compensation will not prevent unplanned outages. Only investing in preventative maintenance can do that. It is an irony that Eraring was once owned by the NSW government but an opportunistic decision was made in 2013 to sell the plant, thus pushing the problem of an aging plant onto the private sector. That is energy politics made in NSW.
Taxpayers out of pocket as state-owned power station sold
1 July 2013 — The first of the state-owned power stations put up for sale by the O’Farrell government, Eraring Energy, has been offloaded for $50 million.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/taxpayers-out-of-pocket-as-state-owned-power-station-sold-for-50m-20130701-2p6hu.html
Fig 16: Mount Piper over 3 days
Fig 17: Vales Point over 3 days
We may remember:
7/10/2022
Sale of Vales Point: How will Czech brown coal baron Pavel Tykac with
business registered in Liechtenstein impact on NSW coal and energy markets?
http://crudeoilpeak.info/sale-of-vales-point-how-will-czech-brown-coal-baron-pavel-tykac-with-business-registered-in-liechtenstein-impact-on-nsw-coal-and-energy-markets
The new owner assumed that Vales Point will be needed for many years to come. Maybe he encountered more problems than he bargained for.
Fig 18: Vales Point VP06 in extended planned outage since 30 Sep 2024
Fig 19: All coal plants together max 5,300 MW over 3 days
Fig 20: NSW coal plants 27 Nov 2024 over 24 hrs
Not only were 4 coal plant units offline, but generation from the remaining units dropped by 460 MW between the critical time of 15:25 and18:45 (Mt Piper). In the end, coal plants will shut down when repairs and maintenance are too expensive and/or the spare parts are no longer available