This week’s fuel update – usually on a Saturday – was done by the Prime Minister himself in a press conference which was mainly about Islamophobia. Yes, a completely different subject but currently hotly debated attracting many questions by the attending journalists. The quick read out of fuel data came as a surprise almost at the end of the event and took only 10% of the time. A very positive message was presented: fuel stock stands at a record level. Due to this carefully selected outlook and the focus on multiculturalism, there were no questions on fuel security. It was a successful media strategic set-up
Press Conference – Sydney
Saturday 18 July 2026
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
The Hon Tony Burke MP, Minister for Home Affairs, Immigration, Citizenship and Cyber Security
The Hon Dr Anne Aly MP, Minister for Multicultural Affairs and Small Business
Aftab Malik Special Envoy to Combat Islamophobia
Note that the Energy Minister Chris Bowern was NOT present (still on leave? No explanation given)
Some geostrategic context:
15/7/26 IMF: The Oil Market Absorbed the War Shock, but Buffers Are Running Low
https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/07/15/the-oil-market-absorbed-the-war-shock-but-buffers-are-running-low
16/7/26 Warning of IEA’s Fatih Birol: weeks, not months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-07-16/iea-chief-on-strait-closure-impact-video
16/7/26 ABC Business interview with Robabank’s Michael Every
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/BUSI2026106924750
Given this deteriorating situation in the Middle East, to devote just 10% of a Saturday press conference to fuel security fails to match an escalating crisis.
What’s worse, the Australian Prime Minister cherry-picked fuel stock held on record levels….
Fig 1: Fuel stock held increased by 22% since March
…… but avoids informing the public that forward fuel and oil orders of 3.2 bn litres are among the 2 lowest since public records started in April 2026
Fig 2: Forward orders for fuel and crude oil for 2 refineries
Again no data by fuel (??? in graph). For example, we do not know how many ML diesel are expected in the next 4 weeks
Here is the fuel security relevant extract from the transcript
PRIME MINISTER: “This week’s fuel update is that Australia currently has 46 days worth of petrol. This is up five days on last week. We have 39 days worth of diesel, two more than last week. And 34 days of jet fuel, one more than last week. What that means is that we currently have 6.5 billion litres of fuel in Australia in total [Fig 1], across all fuel types, which continues to be more than we had at the start of this conflict. And indeed, this is the highest total amount of fuel in Australia since we introduced our fuel stockholdings. Highest ever. We have 55 ships [Fig 3] on the water to Australia right now and 3.2 billion litres of fuel [Fig 2] locked in to be delivered over the next four weeks. Already in July, we have had 47 ships arrive after 91 arrived in June. [Fig 3]”
Fig 3: Ships on the way vs ships arrived in a month
“So, Australians can continue to have confidence in the work that the Government has done to ensure that we have fuel security. I say again, we remain at level two. So, we ask Australians to just take what fuel you need. No more, but no less also. To go about your business. And I do want to say that the work that we’ve done with industry and our international partners to ensure that Australians are well placed in spite of the ongoing international turbulence has been extraordinary. We have had a view the whole way through, reflected in my National Address prior to Easter, that what we needed was a calm and practical approach. An orderly approach to securing fuel supplies in order for the Australian economy to continue to function, for Australian agriculture to be able to see plantings and then harvesting of agricultural produce for food to still be delivered to people’s shelves through our heavy vehicle industry as well. That is what we have done and it’s working.
And I note that around that time, prior to Easter, it was said by the Liberals and One Nation that the fuel supplies would need to be constrained, that we’d need to have restrictions – none of that was necessary. And they were critical of my engagement with our international partners as well, and said that that was a pointless exercise. Well, it was worthwhile. We are delivering and these results are very positive. We continue to closely monitor, of course, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for Australia’s fuel supply. And it is stating the obvious to say that we’re not through all of this conflict yet. So, we’ll continue to monitor these issues and to be responsible.”
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-sydney-37
Well, monitoring is not enough. Responsible, precautionary steps would need to be taken:
- Reduce immigration which increases fuel demand
- Delay or stop large scale diesel consuming projects like apartment and office towers with huge basement car parks resulting in large excavation volumes to be removed by diesel trucks. These projects may get stuck in shortages
- Focus on energy generating projects
- Maximise diesel storage for agriculture, transport of food to the cities and public transport
Fig 4: Diesel stock held
The Australian Petroleum Statistics for May 26 have just come out and that allows us to show APS defined diesel stock (red line) for another month. The onshore and domestic waters percentage has increased from 75% in April to 82% in May suggesting that more diesel is floating offshore near Australian ports because the onshore tank farms are filling up. The safe onshore capacity for diesel is 3,515 ML.
Media reporting
Anthony Albanese announces billions of litres of fuel due to arrive in Australia soon
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/anthony-albanese-announces-billions-of-litres-of-fuel-due-to-arrive-in-australia-soon/news-story/6984648433fe6af3c3d3af9ed61899b5
Australia expands its fuel buffer against Gulf turmoil
https://www.kyfreepress.com.au/national/australia-expands-its-fuel-buffer-against-gulf-turmoil/
https://citynews.com.au/2026/australia-expands-its-fuel-buffer-against-gulf-turmoil/
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese gives message to One Nation voters in weekly fuel update
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/prime-minister-anthony-albanese-gives-message-to-one-nation-voters-in-weekly-fuel-update-c-22594839
‘Take what fuel you need’: Australia has more fuel than at the start of the US-Iran conflict but PM urges motorists not to become complacent
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/take-what-fuel-you-need-australia-has-more-fuel-than-at-the-start-of-the-usiran-conflict-but-pm-urges-motorists-not-to-become-complacent/news-story/83005462054a80576c1f4cf46cbdb681
Conclusion
While stocks are indeed at high levels, forward orders are down. We were not informed about extra (EFA supported) orders and in particular not about the tanker GRAND WINNER 5 which is stuck offshore Wollongong since June 2nd. Its appr. 50 ML is of course included in the MSO statistics. The media have no interest so far.
Related post
Annex
Fig 5: The number the PM mentioned: 3,590 ML + 932 ML +1,979 ML=6.5 billion litres