Around 36% of Australian jet fuel stock is floating offshore outside coastal waters when comparing MOS and APS data. This is part 2 of the analysis on the fuel update 17 Oct.
Fig 8: Jet fuel stock reported under MSO (yellow columns) and APS (red line)
Jet fuel stock (yellow columns) dropped by around 20% from July and August highs. The Energy and Climate Change Minister should be happy because jet fuel is a climate killer.
On 1 Sep, jet fuel floating offshore outside coastal waters (901 – 573 ML= 328 ML) was 36% of the total, not immediately available if needed. This percentage was also applied to the stock data in September and October (red dotted line). On 13 Oct, (663-481 ML = 182 ML) or 55% of the offshore stock was below the MSO level.
Fig 9: Qantas fuel component of expenditure 24.7 %
Fuel cost went up from $m 5,003 to $m 5,724 (mainly March-June) or 14%. In 1H27 fuel cost are expected to reach $3.6 bn (half year only). Air fares will go up 8-10% by December 26.
For the same number of passengers (55.9 m) in 2026 compared to 2025 fuel cost went up by:
Fig 10: Changes in revenue and expenditure FY 26 vs FY 25
Expenditure grew more than revenue, resulting in a reduction in the underlying EBIT.
Source: table on p 21 of Annual Report 25/26
https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/doLLG5ufYkCyEPjF1tpgyw/file/annual-reports/2026-Annual-Report.pdf
and Investor Presentation p 29
https://investor.qantas.com/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/doLLG5ufYkCyEPjF1tpgyw/file/2026FY/QAN_FY26_Investor_PresentationV2.pdf
Fig 11: Petrol stock reported under MSO (yellow columns) and APS (red line)
Petrol stock floating offshore outside coastal waters is 30%.
Fig 12: All fuel stock in one graph
Back to end of February before the Iran war started.
We continue to go through the Minister’s statements in his press conference on 17th October and put them in timeline graphs:
Press conference, Fairfield West, NSW
17 October 2026
MINISTER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY, CHRIS BOWEN: Thanks, everyone, for coming.
Australia has 41 days’ worth of petrol, which is two days less than my update last week.
Now, it’s 33 days’ worth of diesel, which is two days more than my update last week.
We have 28 days’ worth of jet fuel, which is two days less than last week’s update.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-nsw-7
Fig 13: Fuel stock in days consumption cover
CHRIS BOWEN: We have 48 ships on the way to Australia with fuel, and we have 3.2 billion litres of fuel locked in to be delivered over the next four weeks, which is the same amount as my report last week. The rolling four-week average is very consistent.
We have had 75 ships arrive in September and 51 already arrive halfway through October.
Fig 14: Tankers on the way and shiploads received
Comment: the number of ships on the way are consistent only for the last 3 weeks. Otherwise, they varied by 20%. Finally, after 2 months of lack of data, the Minister announced again the arrival of 75 ships in September compared to 91 in April to June. Not consistent. In the above graph 81 was the estimate of this website. The number of ships on the way in September was an average of 40 per week which should have translated to 44 ship arrivals per month. The Minister never explained that difference. Maybe 75 is the number of berthings in milk runs along the coast (double counting?)
Fig 15: Forward crude and fuel orders
Note that after 20 June the numbers are rounded (estimates?) and no fuel specific volumes were given except for 2 weeks on diesel. This type of casual reporting remains unsatisfactory.
CHRIS BOWEN: So the situation remains that Australia’s fuel security is solid in the face of the ongoing international uncertainty.
Comment: It’s more than uncertainty. It’s a permanent crisis where power in the Middle East has shifted.
Iran’s precision strikes picked apart Gulf infrastructure, blunting US war plans
15 Oct 2026
Fuel tanks were among the first casualties at the Fujairah oil zone, a combination refinery and oil port that the UAE used to skirt Iran’s blockade of Hormuz. Iranian munitions have struck Fujairah at least 19 times since the war began; the first strikes caused three days of fires in early March.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/iran-crisis-infrastructure-attacks/
UKMTO struggling to accurately report true number of attacks with majority of vessels attacked refusing to report to UKMTO. • UKMTO is aware via other sources of incidents but constrained on reporting through lack of verification. • 12 attacks reported this week: 10 in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 in the Arabian Gulf and 1 in the Gulf of Oman. • Since 6 Jul, 55 of 74 projectile strikes were on the southern route. • Of the 12, 6 continued or reached port, 1 was lost, 2 were disabled or not under command and 3 have damage or outcome unconfirmed. • US CENTCOM reported disabling one vessel (163 – 26).
UKMTO Comment: Combined transits were 125 outbound and 129 inbound (129 & 146 last week), approximately 70% below pre – conflict levels. AIS observed transits fell to 42 (60 last week) while US-stated facilitated transits were roughly level, about 5:1. US JMIC reporting 80% of SoH transits remain energy carriers. Most AIS broadcasting vessels continue to route via Iranian Route.
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/20261016-ukmto_vra_overview_u.pdf?rev=dad3b12b1ccf4e859f22e0ef07709827
On a journo’s question on travel advice for Saudi Arabia:
CHRIS BOWEN: Well, obviously Saudi Arabia has been under attack from the Houthis.
I was in Saudi Arabia a couple of weeks ago consulting about energy security and fuel supply.
I managed to do that just before the recent and most serious outbreak, although it had been under attack, obviously, before then.
.
Comment: The Minister was so lucky he did not have meetings in Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/grass-cs/AABkmLdWy9iszCmzvFi6991hkAP6ce2P4qqLBTE042LQEqwetrzMbydRjRxm5RyOuBfVhbWRQmC4QV38gDW–3VCYfZtrOq-tu6bTW_d87Qg7qGXQR9loEekLDMHdm98oefTQWpVQIHaaw=w408-h544-k-no
Saudi Aramco headquarters suffered extensive damage in Houthi attack, sources say
Reuters
Wed, October 14, 2026
Oct 14 (Reuters) – Oil giant Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran suffered extensive damage in an attack on Tuesday, with a fire spreading across several floors, three people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The facility hosts an operations centre which helps the world’s largest oil company oversee onshore and offshore oil rigs, refineries, export terminals and thousands of kilometres of pipeline. [servers in the basement]
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aramcos-dhahran-hq-suffered-extensive-damage-tuesdays-attack-sources-say-2026-10-14/
A satellite image taken on July 2, 2026, shows the headquarters of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco in Dhahran before it was attacked
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/aramcos-dhahran-hq-suffered-extensive-105332684.html
Conclusion:
The Energy Minister is unable to compare MSO and APS data and provide a true picture of the situation
Appendix
Data used for this post