Back to square one. Just as the situation in the Middle East is worsening, diesel (and also jet fuel stocks) are basically down to March 2026 levels. This is because Australian onshore tank farm capacity will remain limited until new storage is built at ports and take-away capacity (tanker trains to regional areas) is increased. Offshore storage is expensive. This is what statistics show:
Fig 1: Diesel stock held. Data see Appendix
Did the Minister make this clear to the public? Of course not. It does not fit his narrative.
Press conference, Fairfield West, NSW
12 September 2026
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-nsw-4
Fig 2: Stock held in equivalent days of consumption
And jet fuel is just one day more than in March
Fig 3: Jet fuel stock held
Fig 4: Petrol fuel stock held
Fig 5: 41 tankers on the way 12 Sep 2026. Grey columns guesstimated since July
JOURNALIST: Hey, Minister, Amalee from Channel Nine here. Just on those stats, you said 41 ships are on the way, last week you had a figure of 30. Is that dropping [Indistinct]…? I know you previously had figures [Indistinct] on the way.
MINISTER BOWEN: The figure moves around. The question was the number of ships on the water to Australia. The figure does move around. It’s been in the 30s recently, back up to 41 this week. It has been, you are right Amalee, it’s been in the 50s at various points. But when you look at that together with the 3.3 billion litres of fuel locked in to be delivered over the next four weeks, it’s all pretty consistent with the flow of fuel to Australia over the last six months.
Eyeballing Fig 4, there is actually a declining trend of ships on the water. And the Minister has not given figures for actual ship arrivals since July.
What we expect from the Energy Minister are bar and column charts depicting historical arrival and departures dates of tankers as shown in this article:
13/9/2026
Analysis tanker traffic in Sydney August 2028
https://crudeoilpeak.info/analysis-tanker-traffic-in-sydney-august-2026
Using data collected in:
https://crudeoilpeak.info/tankers-arriving-and-departing-in-sydney
Forward orders are shown in the following graph. Again, we do not know how much diesel is on the way in the next 4 weeks. Imagine you are a contractor planning diesel requirements for a project over several months.
Fig 6: Forward orders still not specified by fuel
This is the first time during a Saturday press conference that the Minister refers to the current Middle East situation. But the term “dispute” is an understatement for an active conflict involving tank battles, heavy air strikes and missiles hitting a strategic oil pipeline.
Houthis seize Perim Island in Bab-el-Mandeb
Everything will depend now on how fast Saudi Aramco can repair the pumping station at Al Mesba’ah (23.95º North and 40.05º East, 950 m high in the Hijaz Mountains before the pipeline makes a steep, gradient assisted descent westward to the coastal plains at the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea) and how the pipeline can be protected in future.
Satellite images show extent of damage to Saudi Arabia’s oil pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz
14 Sep 26
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/iran-war-saudi-arabia-east-west-pipeline-oil.html
13 Sep 2026
Saudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supply
Yanbu storage capacity stands at around 35 million barrels, according to industry estimates, with Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir able to store 18 million and 20 million barrels respectively. Stocks are not full and will ultimately run out without the east-west pipeline resuming operations, the four sources said. Saudi oil supply has already fallen to a more than three-decade low in August on reduced flows via Hormuz and the Red Sea, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. World oil supply will decline this year by 5.7 million bpd, or about 6%, the IEA, which coordinates Western energy policies, said. In addition to the attack on the pipeline, Houthi fighters in Yemen who have threatened Saudi oil shipments seized an island on Friday in the mouth of the Red Sea. The Middle East supplied around 22 million barrels per day of oil before the war. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed to just 6 million to 9 million bpd, industry sources say. Saudi Arabia told OPEC last week that its oil production had dropped to just 6.2 million bpd in August from 10.9 million bpd in February before the start of the war.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-pipeline-outage-threatens-loss-4-global-oil-supply-2026-09-13
Conclusion:
The worsening situation in the Middle East means that as global inventories are depleting and the ME crisis has entered a new phase we are back to where we were in March, with all its consequences
Are there no good news?
Yes, there is! Medium tanker HAFNIA MIKALA which was stranded for 2 months offshore Sydney has finally berthed in Kurnell (KUR1) on 13 Sep2026 at 22:04 hrs
HAFNIA MIKALA 50,000 dwt departed South Korea on 26 June 2026!
But don’t ask the Energy Minister whether this is another case of an EFA supported order gone wrong, like GRAND WINNER 5
5/7/26
Energy Minister’s fuel update avoids statement on tanker GRAND WINNER 5
now idling offshore for 1 month and omits breakdown of forward fuel orders
https://crudeoilpeak.info/energy-ministers-fuel-update-avoids-statement-on-tanker-grand-winner-5-now-idling-offshore-for-1-month-and-omits-breakdown-of-forward-fuel-orders
Appendix
