The new IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report 2010
http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=397
estimates Iran’s oil production capacity will decline by 700 Kb/d by 2015. The above graph shows the change of crude oil capacities between 2015 and 2009, for various OPEC countries.
Assuming continuing domestic growth of oil consumption for a 70 million population this means that Iran’s oil exports will be half in just 5 years.
What does that mean for the Iranian budget? The Iranian Press TV reports:
Iran’s new budget bill and its challenges
8 March 2010
“…..In 1389 [year 2010 starting in March] crude and oil byproducts incomes stand at %51 of the budget revenues….the 1389 Budget Bill, that will be passed by the Parliament after making amendments within the next fortnight, has been projected on the basis of oil prices of US$65 p/b and US dollar -IRL exchange rate of 9850 Rials..”
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=120361§ionid=3510304
Therefore, provided all other factors being equal, oil prices need to double from that level to $130 a barrel for declining oil exports to be revenue neutral.
Although many countries are struggling to maintain a balanced budget the geo-political implications of declining oil exports from Iran are incalculable.
The above estimate, however, could well be too optimistic. I have superimposed oil production and consumption curves on the estimate range provided by the late Dr. Bakhtiari which he presented at an ASPO conferennce in May 2003, in Paris:
Workshop:
http://www.peakoil.net/conferences/iwood-2003-paris
Dr. Bakhtiari’s paper
http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/paper/BakhtiariPaper.doc
It is interesting to note that Dr. Bakhtiari’s WOCAP model contains “geo-politics” as a factor impacting on oil production
http://www.uvm.edu/~gflomenh/ENRG-POL-PA395/readings/2007-oil-peak.pdf
In his 2006 testimony to the Senate Inquiry on future oil supplies he had explained the transition phase T1 between growing and declining oil production and that the world will experience new econpomic rules:
http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S9515.pdf
Another warning about export extinction in Iran (by 2014-2015) was published in 2007 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the US.
The Iranian petroleum crisis and United States national security
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/1/377.full
Although all of the above reports and the latest IEA decline rate arrive at different time frames for exports going towards zero this problem will for sure attract the world’s attention in the next years to come, long before the actual zero point is reached.