A Queensland scorcher on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices $14,000/MWh for 2 hrs
Fig 1: Australia’s synoptic chart for 22 Jan 2025
Townsville 35ºC, Mackay 33 ºC, Mount Isa 41 ºC, Gladstone 36 ºC, Bundaberg 33 ºC, Toowoomba 34 ºC, Roma 42 ºC, Birdsville 47 ºC, Sunshine Coast 36 ºC, Brisbane 36 ºC, Gold Coast 37 ºC.
Fig 1a: NEM max temperature at 3 pm, 36 ºC average
Fig 2: AEMO market notices on lack of reserves
There was actual lack of reserve LOR1 for more than 5 hrs and LOR2 for more than 3 hrs. As a result, prices went up to $ 14,300/MWh for almost 2 hrs starting at 6 pm.
Wattclarity:
Only 400MW spare (a 4% IRPM) in the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ on Wednesday 22nd January 2025 https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2025/01/22jan-qld-irpm-4percent/
Fig 3: AEMO dashboard showing demand and spot prices in Queensland 22 Jan 2025
This screen shot was taken at 20:40 when prices had come down to $200/MWh after there were high prices >$14,000/MWh for almost 2 hrs.
Fig 4: Queensland generation by fuel type 22 Jan 2025
Critical time was shortly after sunset, with a maximum generation at 7 pm
Coal plants:
Fig 5: Queensland coal plants capacity and generation at 7 pm 22 Jan 2025
Gladstone #6 was offline and Tarong North had an unplanned outage, reducing available capacity from 8,119 MW to 7,396 MW (91%). Out of this capacity only 6,543 MW (88%) were actually generated at 7 pm. High ambient temperatures reduce efficiency of heat engines.
Fig 6: Gladstone unit 2 switched offline at 19:31, 22nd January 2025
More details at WattClarity: https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2025/01/22jan-gstone2-off/
Fig 7: Queensland coal plant generation 22 Jan 2025
About Callide we remember:
Callide C4 suffered a hydrogen explosion in May 2021, leaving half a million people without power. It took more than 3 years to repair the plant which re-opened in August 2024
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-25/qld-callide-power-station-explosion-fault-report-energy-battery/104017452
Callide C3’s cooling plant collapsed in October 2022. It took 17 months to repair and return to service in April 2024
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-01/structural-failure-at-callide-power-station-c3-unit/101602444
Major maintenance program wraps-up at Callide Power Station
20 Dec 2024
https://www.csenergy.com.au/news/major-maintenance-program-wraps-up-at-callide-power-station
Gas peaking plants:
Fig 8: Queensland gas peaking plants generation 21 – 23 Jan 2025
Fig 9: Queensland’s largest gas plant Darling Downs 21 – 23 Jan 2025
Distillate peaking plants
Fig 10: Queensland diesel plants 21 – 23 Jan 2025
A whopping 320 MW diesel power at a critical time!
Fig 11: Queensland’s largest distillate plant 21 Jan – 23 Jan 2025
All 3 units were needed.
Hydro
Fig 12: Queensland Pumped Hydro 21 – 23 Jan 2025
In 3 days, generation was 9.9 GWh with pumps requiring 9 GWh from the grid, almost balanced.
Fig 13: Queensland’s largest pumped hydro plant Jan 21 – 23 2025
Wind
Fig 14: Queensland wind generation 21-23 Jan 2025
Not much wind in the afternoon/evening. Wind ramped up when it was too late, between 8 pm and 10 pm.
Batteries
Fig 15: Queensland Batteries – Discharging and charging 21-23 Jan 2025
Over this period, charging was 2.9 GWh allowing a discharge of 2.1 GWh at exactly the time required. The largest battery is Western Downs (270 MW, 1,080 MWh)
Imports
Fig 16: Queensland imports 21-23 Jan 2025
After 2 short export bursts of 480 MW between 8:30 and 2:30 pm, Queensland needed imports (from NSW), but they dropped from 480 MW at 5:30 pm to 200 MW at 7 pm, to rebound to 600 MW by 9 pm.
Impact on NSW
Fig 17: NSW price spikes on 22 Jan 2025
There were also price spikes in NSW, at a very modest demand level 9,500 MW due to cooler air coming from the South (see location of high pressure cell in Fig 1 with winds turning ant-clockwise up the east coast).
Summary and conclusion
Queensland is absolutely dependent on coal and peaking plants using coal seam gas. The minimum coal generation capacity needed (at the time of maximum solar output) is around 4 GW. That would be the “base load” running 24 hrs/day. The Liberal opposition under Dutton has proposed 2 nuclear power plants in Queensland, one in Callide and one in Tarong. Although no capacities have been mentioned the AP-1000 reactors have 1.1 GW each.
19 June 2024
The large-scale AP-1000 reactors mentioned by Mr Dutton today have a capacity of 1.1 gigawatts (GW), and he suggested small modular reactors would have a capacity of 0.47 GW.
Fig 18: Nuclear power sites proposed by the Liberal opposition
So 2 reactors for Queensland would not be enough and 1.8 GW would have to come from a combination of renewables plus storage (batteries, pumped hydro).
Comment
from Geoff Miell, Lithgow
Hurdles for nuclear power in Australia:
From the The House Select Committee on Nuclear Energy, public hearing on 11 Dec 2024 in Lithgow
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Select_Committee_on_Nuclear_Energy/Nuclearpower/Public_Hearings
Mr Geoff Miell:
“The first hurdle is getting control of both houses of parliament, to change the legislation that bans nuclear power. Until you get control of both houses of parliament, you can’t proceed.
The second hurdle is looking at the state governments. They’ve also got prohibitions. So you would have to negotiate with all the relevant states and territories—and you may well have court cases, and that’s going to take time.
The third thing is that you’ve got all the private owners of these sites, and you would have to pay compensation for taking over their sites. That’s going to take time, negotiating a just compensation.
The fourth hurdle is the time it takes to actually build a power station and get it up and running”
For details on planning and construction times of nuclear power plants around the world see Geoff’s submission 66, attachment 1 and supplementary to submission
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Select_Committee_on_Nuclear_Energy/Nuclearpower/Submissions