![In this 2nd part we use data from the BP Statistical Review (June 2020). BP’s definition of oil is different from OPEC’s crude oil used in part 1. It includes […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/West-African-oil-exports_2001-2019-607x250.jpg "Peak oil in Africa (part 2): Export zero sum game")
![We examine whether OPEC’s quotas for its African members are actually on the production decline path of these countries. OPEC’s quota levels can be found here: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/Voluntary%20Production%20Levels.pdf At present 7 […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/OPEC_Africa_7countries_2001-2021-607x250.jpg "Peak oil in Africa part1: OPEC quotas Jan 2021")
![Feliz Navidad! (1) Pre-Covid ..Fig 1: Oil production and peak years Production peaked 2015 due to Venezuela’s production collapse. Brazil’s production has not yet peaked but is unlikely to offset […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/SC_America_1993-Sep2020-1-640x250.jpg "Peak Oil in South & Central America")
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![September 2018 5/9/2018 4 scenarios by RBC Capital Markets (1) Waiting Game Oil price neutral. Iran honors its commitments under the nuclear deal attempting to wait out the Trump administration. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Iran-crude-condensate_exports_Mar2016-Aug2018-36x36.jpg "Iran Update")
Iran Update
04 September 2018 11:27 AM | No Comments -
![Part 2 Eraring, Mt Piper, Vales Pt Introduction: The NSW government is selling Snowy Hydro to the Federal Government, thereby demonstrating beyond doubt that it is abrogating its duty of […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Eraring1_Jan2018-RG-36x36.jpg "NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2)")
NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2)
16 March 2018 11:36 PM | No Comments -
![This article is about a paper I handed over to former Prime Minister Howard during a seminar at the Australian Institute of International Affairs on 31/10/2017 Australia in Today’s World […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/BP_crude_NGL_production_by_region_2000_2016-36x36.jpg "Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004")
Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004
31 October 2017 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Immigrants to blame for high house prices, businessman Dick Smith claims Mr Smith said “jumbo loads” of immigrants arriving each week were the “main driver” behind the country’s housing affordability […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW_population_pyramid_1971-2016-36x36.jpg "Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration")
Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration
27 February 2017 8:17 AM | No Comments -
![This article is part 3 of a series on peak oil in the South China Sea. Bloomberg commented on 15/12/2016 that “Trump’s Top Diplomat Would Bring Complex History With China […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Vietnam_gas_production_by_field_1991-2015-36x36.jpg "Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim")
Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim
28 December 2016 7:06 PM | No Comments -
![In part 2 of this series we continue our excursion into Sydney’s rail world and look at whether this city spends its rail money wisely to prepare for an age […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Railcorp_ATP_briefing-36x36.jpg "Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)")
Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)
04 January 2015 9:02 AM | No Comments -
![Contents: (1) Epping – Chatswood tunnel conversion works proposed (2) Removal of tracks at Epping and Chatswood (3) Operational flexibility reduced (4) Removal of signalling What can the world […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Tangara_Sydney_Central_via_Macquarie_Park-Dec2014-36x36.jpg "Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)")
Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)
30 December 2014 9:28 PM | No Comments -
![A sustainable city is foremost an energy thrifty city with a minimum of energy used for transport. A good example is the 1976 master plan for Dodoma in Tanzania, an […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/community_316ha-36x36.jpg "Sustainable Cities Master Plan")
Sustainable Cities Master Plan
26 August 2009 9:00 AM | No Comments
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![Exxon Mobil’s Melbourne refinery is closing and will be converted into a fuel import terminal. The Australian public broadcaster has found the right title for its article: Australia loses another […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Exxon_Mobil_net_liquids_production_by_region_2000_2019-36x36.jpg "Exxon Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context")
Exxon Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context
15 February 2021 9:08 PM | No Comments -
![In this 2nd part we use data from the BP Statistical Review (June 2020). BP’s definition of oil is different from OPEC’s crude oil used in part 1. It includes […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/West-African-oil-exports_2001-2019-36x36.jpg "Peak oil in Africa (part 2): Export zero sum game")
Peak oil in Africa (part 2): Export zero sum game
05 February 2021 11:09 AM | No Comments -
![We examine whether OPEC’s quotas for its African members are actually on the production decline path of these countries. OPEC’s quota levels can be found here: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/Voluntary%20Production%20Levels.pdf At present 7 […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/OPEC_Africa_7countries_2001-2021-36x36.jpg "Peak oil in Africa part1: OPEC quotas Jan 2021")
Peak oil in Africa part1: OPEC quotas Jan 2021
19 January 2021 2:12 PM | No Comments -
![Feliz Navidad! (1) Pre-Covid ..Fig 1: Oil production and peak years Production peaked 2015 due to Venezuela’s production collapse. Brazil’s production has not yet peaked but is unlikely to offset […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/SC_America_1993-Sep2020-1-36x36.jpg "Peak Oil in South & Central America")
Peak Oil in South & Central America
25 December 2020 1:00 AM | No Comments -
![28-29 November Fig 10: Temperatures in Sydney (8) More Lack-of-reserve warnings Fig 11: timeline of AEMO’s notices The table shows the sequence of LOR notices for 28-29 Nov 2020 and […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/AEMO-LOR-notices_28-29Nov2020-36x36.jpg "NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 2)")
NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 2)
11 December 2020 10:05 AM | No Comments -
![The summer hasn’t even started yet and the first lack-of-reserve and outage notices have appeared. 16 November 2020 (1) Line Outage Upper Tumut- Stockdill AEMO market notice 80022 16/11/2020 01:39:08 […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-power-generation-12GW_16Nov2020-36x36.jpg "NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 1)")
NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 1)
26 November 2020 9:25 PM | No Comments -
![Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security 30 Oct 2020 Fig […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Australian_imports_crude_products_1978-2019-36x36.jpg "Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context")
Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context
14 November 2020 3:46 PM | No Comments -
![In the previous posts we have shown that the peak oil problem in Asia is mainly a problem of skyrocketing consumption at an additional 1 mb/d (2.8%) each year. Whereas […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Japan-fuel-consumption_1965-2019-1-36x36.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 4)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 4)
10 September 2020 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Fig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Asia-Pacific-oil-production_BP-1965_2019-36x36.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)
17 August 2020 1:32 PM | No Comments -
![Continued from part 1 But there is another metric explaining China’s oil consumption growth: debt. The following graph is from an article by the Institute of International Finance in its […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/China_oil-consumption-debt_2000-18-36x36.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
15 July 2020 12:00 PM | No Comments
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![Exxon Mobil’s Melbourne refinery is closing and will be converted into a fuel import terminal. The Australian public broadcaster has found the right title for its article: Australia loses another […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Exxon_Mobil_net_liquids_production_by_region_2000_2019-640x250.jpg "Exxon Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context")
Exxon Mobil’s refinery closure in Australia: peak oil context
Exxon Mobil’s Melbourne refinery is closing and will be converted into a fuel import terminal. The Australian public broadcaster has found the right title for its article: Australia loses another […]
Latest Headlines
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![This post is an update of a graph done in 2015: Fig 1: Conventional oil production on bumpy plateau 2005-2014 In http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs When adding the new data for 2015-2018 it […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/World_conv-crude_plateau_2005-2018-115x115.jpg "2005-2018 Conventional crude production on a bumpy plateau – with a little help from Iraq")
2005-2018 Conventional crude production on a bumpy plateau – with a little help from Iraq
Posted on August 26, 2019 | No CommentsThis post is an update of a graph done in 2015: Fig 1: Conventional oil production on bumpy plateau 2005-2014 In http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs When adding the new data for 2015-2018 it […] -
![Tankers holed and burning in the Gulf of Oman are not a good sign for future oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Fig 1: Norway’s Front Altair burning with 75,000 […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Front_Altair_13Jun2019-115x115.jpg "Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?")
Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?
Posted on June 21, 2019 | No CommentsTankers holed and burning in the Gulf of Oman are not a good sign for future oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Fig 1: Norway’s Front Altair burning with 75,000 […] -
![In the year 2005, the global crude production curve shows a definitive kink, going horizontal for several years. This caused the 2008 oil price shock and the following financial crisis […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/World_crude_production_1994-Dec2018-115x115.jpg "World crude production outside US and Iraq is flat since 2005")
World crude production outside US and Iraq is flat since 2005
Posted on June 10, 2019 | No CommentsIn the year 2005, the global crude production curve shows a definitive kink, going horizontal for several years. This caused the 2008 oil price shock and the following financial crisis […] -
![Australia increased its internal oil dependency & vulnerability Let’s summarize what we covered in part 1 and 2 Australian oil production peaked in the year 2000 while oil consumption is […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Sydney_airports_demand_forecast_2015-2075-115x115.jpg "Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 3)")
Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 3)
Posted on May 2, 2019 | No CommentsAustralia increased its internal oil dependency & vulnerability Let’s summarize what we covered in part 1 and 2 Australian oil production peaked in the year 2000 while oil consumption is […] -
![Coming back to the 2019 Liquid Security Review https://www.environment.gov.au/energy/liquid-fuel-security-review-consultation Figures 9-11 in part 1 show how dependent Australia has become on fuel imports from South Korea and Japan, even China. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/China_crude_Production_imports_2002_Dec2018-115x115.jpg "Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 2)")
Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 2)
Posted on April 30, 2019 | No CommentsComing back to the 2019 Liquid Security Review https://www.environment.gov.au/energy/liquid-fuel-security-review-consultation Figures 9-11 in part 1 show how dependent Australia has become on fuel imports from South Korea and Japan, even China. […] -
![Just a week before a Federal election was called the Australian Minister for Energy, Angus Taylor, released an interim report on fuel security on 4th April 2019 for public consultation (hereinafter […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Australian_crude_oil_imports_2004_Jan2019-115x115.jpg "Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 1)")
Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 1)
Posted on April 29, 2019 | No CommentsJust a week before a Federal election was called the Australian Minister for Energy, Angus Taylor, released an interim report on fuel security on 4th April 2019 for public consultation (hereinafter […] -
![In the latest announcement of the Berejiklian government, 5 min before the 23rd March 2019 election, the New South Wales Premier confirmed the government will build the Metro West (already […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/MetroWest_corridor-115x115.jpg "Sydney’s Immigration Metros (Part 1)")
Sydney’s Immigration Metros (Part 1)
Posted on March 11, 2019 | No CommentsIn the latest announcement of the Berejiklian government, 5 min before the 23rd March 2019 election, the New South Wales Premier confirmed the government will build the Metro West (already […] -
![Fig 1: NSW power generation, prices and temperatures We see the critical day was Thursday, Jan 31st with temperatures up to 39.3 degrees. Coal generation was 8,853 MW (out of […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Liddell_28Jan-2Feb2019-115x115.jpg "NSW coal fired power plants generation in late January 2019")
NSW coal fired power plants generation in late January 2019
Posted on February 5, 2019 | No CommentsFig 1: NSW power generation, prices and temperatures We see the critical day was Thursday, Jan 31st with temperatures up to 39.3 degrees. Coal generation was 8,853 MW (out of […] -
![Fig 1: 7 days power generation in Victoria (screenshot from the Open NEM website) https://opennem.org.au/#/regions/vic In order to understand the above graph we have to know how Excel is dealing […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Victoria-Exports-Imports-17-26Jan2019-115x115.jpg "Victoria became power importer in January 2019 heatwave")
Victoria became power importer in January 2019 heatwave
Posted on January 29, 2019 | No CommentsFig 1: 7 days power generation in Victoria (screenshot from the Open NEM website) https://opennem.org.au/#/regions/vic In order to understand the above graph we have to know how Excel is dealing […] -
![Yesterday, 22 Jan 2019, total power demand on Australia’s East Coast reached – just like 5 days earlier – the 35 GW mark. Fig 1: Power generation by source for […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Victoria-generation_22Jan2019-115x115.jpg "Victoria’s 600 MW brown coal plant outage leads to price spike but system survives")
Victoria’s 600 MW brown coal plant outage leads to price spike but system survives
Posted on January 23, 2019 | No CommentsYesterday, 22 Jan 2019, total power demand on Australia’s East Coast reached – just like 5 days earlier – the 35 GW mark. Fig 1: Power generation by source for […]
