Why does Energy Minister Bowen no longer disclose forward orders by fuel?

By
matt
– August 25, 2026Posted in: Australia, Hormuz, Power Supply

The deficiency of fuel supply updates highlighted in previous articles seems to become permanent.

CHRIS BOWEN: We have 51 ships on the way to Australia with fuel, which is a very good thing, and we have 3.5 billion litres of fuel locked in for delivery over the next four weeks

https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-nsw-1

Fig 1: Forward orders by fuel 4 Apr – 22 Aug 2026

In the above quote, the numbers for each fuel are missing. The many question marks describe the problem. The height of the columns in the graph starting with 27 June are guesstimated, i.e. it is assumed that the ratios as given by the numbers on 20 June have not changed. This is unsatisfactory. For example, we do not know how many ML of diesel we can expect in the next weeks. That is strange because the Fuel Task Force would calculate forecasts by fuel anyway, adding them up to the total. While up to now we have muddled through there might come a point where the 4-week moving window hits the next phase of the Middle East crisis.

And where is the shipload of jet fuel from Thailand? Extra orders have not been disclosed by the Minister since June 20th.

Albo is so happy: Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul brought a special gift: jet fuel

19/8/26
And I want to thank the Prime Minister personally for his generous offer of access to jet fuel, as well, from Thailand, which is particularly welcome at this difficult time.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-media-statement-parliament-house-canberra-19-aug-2026

Fig 2: Ships on the way

The grey columns are cumulative shiploads received in a month. Here also the Minister did not give the number of the previous month. 81 for July is guesstimated.

Nil return

This laissez faire attitude is also visible in the delay this information was provided.
Usually, there is a fuel update on Saturdays. There are 2 steps:

(1) Between 9 am and 10 am, the website
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics
is updated with a new MSO chart based on data up to the previous Tuesday, in this case 11 August.

(2) Later in the day, there is a press conference by the Energy Minister who reads out numbers from this chart. Additionally, he will announce tankers on the water for Australia and the fuel expected in the next 4 weeks. Up to 20 June, he would disclose these fuels by fuel type (diesel, jet fuel, petrol). But no more

On Saturday, 22 Aug there was an MSO nil return. The above website was not updated until Monday, 24th. The press conference was moved to Sunday, 23 August. Clearly, the reporting standards are going downhill.

Fuel stock held in graphs

CHRIS BOWEN: we have 44 days worth of petrol, which is 3 days more than last week’s update and 8 days more than when the conflict began, 36 days worth of diesel, which is one day less than the update last week and 4 days more than when the Iran conflict began, and 34 days worth of jet fuel, which is also one day less than last week, but 5 days more than when the conflict began

.Fig 3: Stock held in equivalent consumption days

The most important fuel, diesel, has only 2 days more compared to end February. This means that Australia is not much better prepared when the current crisis worsens (global inventory depletion).

Fig 4: Diesel stock held on/offshore

Fig 5: Jet fuel stock held on/offshore

Fig 6: Petrol stock held on/offshore

Wishful thinking

CHRIS BOWEN: So again, as we’ve said many times, while this international situation remains ongoing, which we would prefer not to be the case, we’ll remain focused on providing Australians with the security they need to get the fuel they need

The wording “This international situation remains ongoing” implies the assumption that the “situation” will one day change for the better. But what if it doesn’t?

Art Berman’s inventory monitoring

Watch Art Berman’s video

19 Aug 2026
Art Berman: Iran War Causing ‘Phase-Shift’ in Oil Markets, ‘Will Never’ Return to Normal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NiqUY3k7xI

00:44 – Iran War Energy Disruptions
03:00 – China Demand Destruction Analysis
05:24 – Diesel Prices Regional Impacts
06:52 – Stocks Versus Flows Distinction
09:04 – Savings Account Analogy
18:14 – Global Inventories Assessment
22:37 – Persian Gulf Production Losses
33:15 – Lost Production Focus
39:51 – Phase Shift Market Scenario
50:53 – Refinery Tightness Crack Spreads
59:03 – Comparative Inventory Tool

Art is oil geologist from Houston, Texas, and has used his comparative inventory method to estimate crunch time in November 2026

Fig 7: Monthly inventory deficits are accumulating. From this article:

1 August 2026
Oil Prices Can’t Be Whatever We Think They Should Be
https://www.artberman.com/blog/oil-prices-cant-be-whatever-we-think-they-should-be/

Power crisis from data centres

Data centres are now dominating the public energy debate

JOURNALIST: Is there any way you think the Federal Government might be able to try and get Queensland on board in terms of that investing in renewables to power data centres?
CHRIS BOWEN: Well, the Queensland Government has made their views pretty clear. We disagree with them, and we’re proceeding with that. Now, we’ll be putting in place Commonwealth legislation here…

In winter, what matters is the power generated after sunset measured in MW, under all conditions (climate change, weather, availability of wind, hydro, gas, batteries and survivability of coal plants)

6/8/25
NSW coal fired generation exceeded 7,000 MW on 20 evenings in July 2026Fig 8: Coal generation in NSW – winter month
https://crudeoilpeak.info/nsw-coal-fired-generation-exceeded-7000-mw-on-20-evenings-in-july-2026

JOURNALIST: Minister, just on fuel. The sugar industry says that if there was an ethanol mandate, as there is in more than 50 countries, Australia would have cheaper fuel. It would help add to fuel security. It would add millions of litres of supply overnight. It would also shore up their industry, because it would give them another option to sell. So why doesn’t Australia have an ethanol purchasing mandate like other countries?
CHRIS BOWEN: Well, great question. And last week, Catherine King and I released the next stages of ensuring biofuels in Australia, in which ethanol is a key option. Ethanol, sugar, canola, all sorts of Australian agricultural products can go into Australian fuels, and that can help us with fuel security, and it can help create income for Australian farmers

The consultation paper is here:
18 August 2026
Securing Australia’s Cleaner Fuels Industry: Consultation paper on a demand mechanism
https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/securing-australias-cleaner-fuels-industry-consultation

These are long term projects. Phase 1 is the market formation for specified volumes of fuels up to 2035 and phase 2 is the transition to carbon intensity targets.

Conclusion:

A certain complacency has settled in. We do not expect that the Australian government reveals its own internal scenario calculations. But the continuing feel-good narrative of the Energy Minister does not suggest that serious preparations for a worsening situation are underway. This does not bode well for all fuel dependent projects which were recently started or which are in the planning pipeline without energy calculations.

Appendix

Fig 9: DCCEEW chart updated with data to 18 Aug 2026
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics