Australia’s jet fuel imports:
Fig 1: Australian jet fuel imports
While the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked:
China urges refiners to suspend fuel exports amid Mideast war, sources say
SINGAPORE, March 5 (Reuters) – China has asked refiners to halt signing new contracts to export fuel and to try to cancel shipments already committed as tight oil supply due to the Iran war curbs refinery output, several people with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday
The guidance does not apply to jet fuel for international flights, bonded bunkering or supplies to Hong Kong and Macau.
Impact expected for April
With most March exports already fixed, and the difficulty in recalling cargos the new directive is expected to cut into exports from April onwards.
At least 2 Chinese refineries – privately led Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp and Sinopec-operated Fujian refinery – have begun reducing throughput this month and more plants are expected to curb output as the ME conflict disrupts crude oil flows, sending prices surging.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-urges-refiners-suspend-fuel-exports-amid-mideast-conflict-sources-say-2026-03-05
Fig 2: Australia’s jet fuel imports from China since 2021
After the recovery and a stabilization phase from the Wuhan virus Australia’s average monthly jet fuel imports were 36 kb/d = 28% of total jet fuel imports since July 2023.
So Australia will have to look for new suppliers. How about Singapore?
Australia also imported 20% of its jet fuel from Singapore, an alternative supplier. This is the topic for another post.
Here are all the suppliers in 2025:
Fig 3: Australian jet fuel imports in 2025
How much jet fuel does Australia produce from its 2 remaining refineries?
Fig 4: Jet fuel from Australian refineries compared to imported jet fuel
Demand for jet-fuel dropped dramatically when the Wuhan virus hit in 2020. Shortly after, in 2021, 2 refineries (Kwinana, Altona) shut down. Now only 20 kb/d come from the 2 remaining refineries.
Note Australian refineries do not depend on crude oil imports from the Middle East.
Fig 5: Australian crude imports by country
Which flights will be impacted? Both domestic and international at almost the same shares.
Fig 6: Jet fuel sales domestic and international flights
Fig 7: Jet fuel consumption cover is around 20 days
Note: “days of consumption cover” is the number of days that Australia’s end-of-month petroleum stockholdings would last if recent consumption rates continued. It also assumes: no refinery production and no imports or exports of crude or refined products. The calculation includes stocks held in the following locations: domestic refineries, import terminals, major marketing and bulk terminals, marine bunkering facilities, major airports, on-site at major users (e.g. mining) and onboard vessels in Australian waters (domestic coastal shipping only but not the entire EEZ).
If the EEZ is included, Energy Minister Bowen informed the Parliament on 2/3/2026 that the jet-fuel cover is 32 days
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/29140/&sid=0000
All this happens in the year in which the 2nd Sydney airport is to open
Grow in Sydney with WSI – opening 2026
https://www.wsiairport.com.au/Newsroom/grow-sydney-wsi-opening-2026
And read this:
What is the Government’s plan to provide jet fuel to Western Sydney Airport?
20 Nov 2019
The provision of jet fuel to Western Sydney Airport is a matter for the Federal Government. Preliminary work is currently being undertaken to identify route options for future fuel pipeline connection.
A Deloitte report commissioned by the Department of Infrastructure, Regional Development and Cities found that on opening in 2026, it will be most cost efficient to deliver fuel to the airport by truck and, on opening, Western Sydney Airport will require five fuel trucks per day.
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/la/papers/Pages/qanda-tracking-details.aspx
And the flight restrictions in the Middle East will reduce air traffic
So there will be a triple whammy.
Good luck.
It was oil and climate change illiterate Prime Minister Tony Abbott who approved this airport:
Tony Abbott confirms Badgerys Creek as site of second Sydney airport
Apr 15, 2014
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-confirms-badgerys-creek-as-site-of-second-sydney-airport-20140415-zqv0d.html