Since 20 June, Energy Minister Chis Bowen failed to release expected deliveries by fuel. He only informed the public about the total numbers. This website criticised this deficiency. It made it impossible to establish a vital trend analysis which must be part of a proper monitoring process. In preparing weekly graphs this website had to assume that the ratios between the different fuels did not change.
Last Saturday Bowen was on an overseas trip, so the Minister for the Environment and Water, Murray Watt, stepped in. He released the expected diesel deliveries for the next 4 weeks, 1,900 ML.
Press conference, Melbourne
26 September 2026
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/watt/transcripts/press-conference-melbourne-0
1,900 ML diesel is the same volume as on June 20th. Together with lower total deliveries (3,500 ML instead of 3,857 ML) and an assumption that Australia’s 2 remaining refineries have made sure that they could maintain production at same levels this means that expected deliveries for petrol and jet fuel will have to go down.
Fig 1: Comparison of forward orders 20 June vs 26 Sep
Squeezed between crude oil and diesel this means a reduction of petrol and jet fuel by 25%.
840 ML is the assumed average of estimated crude oil deliveries since June but this could be on the low side. According to the Australian Petroleum Statistics in July imported refinery inputs were in the order of 1,000 ML. So this reduction for petrol and jet fuel could be higher.
It is doubtful the Minister was aware of this, not to mention the journalists.
Fig 2: Numbers from Fig 1 inserted in column 26 Sep
Here we can see the disastrous result of Minister Bowen not having informed the public of forward orders by fuel for 3 MONTHS! So many question marks. No appreciation of the Government of unbroken timelines.
Let’s continue what else the Minister said:
To give you a few facts and figures, we now have 42 days of petrol supplies in Australia, that’s one day more than this time last week. 32 days of diesel supplies, which is also one day more than last week. 29 days of jet fuel, which is three days less than last week, but still within normal levels
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/watt/transcripts/press-conference-melbourne-0
Chris Bowen (a previous Immigration Minister) is visiting India to beg for more fuel. Now that is a brilliant idea. A growing number of Indian migrants to Australia means a higher diesel consumption for the construction of additional housing and the movements of goods to warehouses and shopping centres. So to get diesel from India is the right way to do this. As we can see in the graph below, diesel imports from India so far this year were disappointingly lower than in 2025, by -37% up to July. So action was required.
Fig 3: Diesel imports from India Jan-Jul 26 compared to 2025
Here are the days of coverage:
Fig 4: Fuel stock in days. Diesel and Jet fuel are down compared to 24 February
Stock by fuel in ML
Fig 5: Diesel stock held, MSO level and onshore/offshore share
On 22 Sep diesel stock was a bit higher than last week but 160 ML BELOW the level end of February before the Iran war.
How many days above MSO?
Diesel 2,938-2,225=713 ML divided by 90 ML/day = 8 days
Fig 6: Jet fuel stock held, MSO level and onshore/offshore share
Jet fuel stock held on 22 Sep is also lower than on 24 Feb.
How many days above MSO?
Jet fuel 786-663 =123 ML divided by 12 ML = 10 days
Fig 7: Petrol stock held, MSO level and onshore/offshore share
How many days above MSO?
Petrol 1,087-855 =232 ML divided by 42 ML = 6 days
Fig 8: Stock held all fuels
Stock is back to end February levels. Back to square 1. The higher stock in petrol is compensated by lower stock in diesel and jet fuel.
Conclusion: the whole system continued business as usual, just like the Prime Minister and the Energy Minister wanted it in many press conferences. No matter at which cost.
Let’s look at the sales:
Fig 9: Fuel sales January – July 2026
Diesel demand is “sticky”. The driver of the economy. Excavation and concreting projects started everywhere. Petrol should be most responsive to high prices. But the data suggests otherwise. Continuing jet fuel consumption is government-engineered by allowing a high number of migrants who will visit their relatives abroad.
Delivery in next 4 weeks and ships on the water
Fig 10: Ships on the way and ships arrived
The Minister will never reconcile the numbers of ships on the way and the actual arrival of ships which is down from 90 in April to June to around in 70 in September.
