As the war in the Middle East has started, it’s time to update earlier posts on Australian fuel imports which indirectly depend on the Middle East. As of writing this post, Marine Traffic shows little traffic through the Strait of Hormuz:
Fig 1: Tankers (red) and Cargo vessels (green) on 2 March 2026
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.8/centery:26.0/zoom:8
Sal Mercoglianos of the YouTube channel “What’s Going on with Shipping” says traffic is “constrained”, not closed, mainly by risk aversion and high insurance costs. He also points out that the US would not want the Iran Navy to leave Bandar Abbas. https://x.com/mercoglianos
1 March 2026 Ships stranded at Hormuz. Is the Strait open or closed?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcdNGlbep1M
Updates can be had by the tanker trackers https://x.com/TankerTrackers, https://x.com/CENTCOM and https://gcaptain.com/
Australia is far from Hormuz, but its fuel imports come from Asian refineries which get much of their crude oil from the Middle East. Details were in this post:
19 Feb 2026
How many barrels of OPEC crude oil exports would be impacted in case of a Persian Gulf war?
https://crudeoilpeak.info/how-many-barrels-of-opec-crude-oil-exports-would-be-impacted-in-case-of-a-persian-gulf-war
The most important fuel for the economy is diesel.
Fig 2: Timeline of Australia’s diesel imports by country
The increase was mainly driven by the closure of local refineries.
3 Dec 2025
Foot print of peak oil in Australia. Fuel import vulnerability update September 2025 data
https://crudeoilpeak.info/foot-print-of-peak-oil-in-australia-fuel-import-vulnerability-update-september-2025-data
Fig 3: Diesel imports 2025
We calculate that appr. half of Australia’s diesel imports depend on the Strait of Hormuz
Fig 4: Australian diesel consumption cover is 25 days
And we have diesel from the remaining 2 local refineries:
Fig 5: Australian refinery output
Fig 6: Time line of Australian crude oil imports
Note that crude oil imports do not depend on the Middle East.
What to do?
Time for action was under the Howard and Rudd governments. We could have used gas as transport fuel.
13/10/2011
NSW gas as transport fuel. Where are the plans?
http://crudeoilpeak.info/nsw-gas-as-transport-fuel-where-are-the-plans
Now it’s too late. We have now to wait for the very slow introduction of electric trucks.
This is the government’s website on fuel security. Don’t hold your breath.
Australia’s fuel security
Updated September 2025
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security
Australia’s fuel security falling short as ‘war-game’ report, released under FOI, reveals vulnerabilities
7 Jan 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-07/australia-fuel-security-falling-short-foi-war-game-report/104745210
We do not know how long this war will last but if a “constrained” Strait of Hormuz continues for weeks expect something similar to what happened when the Wuhan virus hit. Shortages then were diplomatically described as “supply chain issues”
Update
Dire Strait – Strait of Hormuz Update for March 3, 2026 | Some Ships Run the Strait with AIS Off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xUALzztelM
Addendum
2/3/2026 Question Time in Parliament
Mr JOYCE (New England) (15:04): My question is to the Minister for Climate Change and Energy. Since the commencement of hostilities in the Middle East, what actions has he had to assure Australia of security of fuel supplies, especially diesel, and how much diesel in days do we currently have in store on Australian soil?
Mr BOWEN (McMahon—Minister for Climate Change and Energy) (15:04): I thank the honourable member for the question. The answer to the question is 34 days in relation to diesel, 32 days in relation to jet fuel and 36 days in relation to petrol. I know he only asked me about diesel, but I think he would be interested in the other figures as well. I am pleased to say that these stocks are the highest they’ve been for any time in the past 15 years. I’m very pleased to say that. Obviously, the more fuel supply we have on hand, the better. I am very glad that we now have more than at any time in the past 15 years.
Mr Joyce: It’s on relevance. With respect, I did say ‘on Australian soil’. What he’s mentioning now is also what is at sea, on its way to Australia. They are on ships of convenience and can be directed away at any time.
Mr BOWEN: I want to commend the member for the point of order. It’s a reasonable point of clarification. Those figures only include fuel in Australia or on ships in our economic zone. Only that is what is included. Not ships that are some way away, whether they be in the Middle East or Singapore or the Gulf of Mexico. It is fuel in our exclusive economic zone. It is true that it is not all on land in Australia. My advice is that it does include fuel that is on the way to Australia, that is in our economic zone.
We believe it’s appropriate, that’s why we introduced minimum holding stocks.
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansardr/29140/&sid=0000
