Saturday is fuel security day. 30 May 2026 with data from 26/5/26
(1) It knocks off with the publication of the following graph between 8-9 am:
Fig 1: Weekly MSO graph with data from 26 May (4 days processing time)
https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics
The previous graphs are not available in a public archive. This government website does not have any explanation on how the data relate to previously released graphs. Most readers would just look at the consumption cover days. Crudeoilpeak maintains an archive for analysis:
Fig 2: Time chart of diesel stock held
(2) At 11 am the Energy Minister appears on ABC News in a short door stop snippet saying that the 20% MSO reduction will be extended from July until September for companies to have flexibility and that there are 48 days petrol. No details on forward orders. Just as he wanted to say more, he was cut off.
Even Reuters did not have these details
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australia-extends-measure-that-releases-petrol-diesel-domestic-reserves-2026-05-30/
But a journo from The Nightly picked up 2 important numbers
Mr Bowen said 46 fuel ships were currently en route to Australia and 3.3 billion litres of fuel deliveries had been contracted for the next four weeks, including diesel, petrol, jet fuel and crude oil.
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/chris-bowen-extends-fuel-flexibility-measures-in-sydney-as-australia-faces-ongoing-global-supply-pressure-c-22358527
(3) Later in the day, there is this media release, again without forward order numbers.
Government maintains fuel security
30 May 2026
The Albanese Government will maintain maximum flexibility in the domestic fuel market, by extending the temporary relaxation of the baseline Minimum Stockholding Obligation for petrol and diesel for a further three months.
This precautionary action will continue to allow suppliers to hold 20 per cent less diesel and petrol in reserve if they commit to delivering more fuel into the domestic market and regional supply until 30 September 2026.
These are the stocks of fuel held in Australia, which must be maintained each week by bulk importers and refineries.
Australia’s domestic reserves have hit record levels in recent weeks, as fuel continues to arrive as expected and demand returns to normal levels.
Fig 3: Fuel stock held. The data are from Fig 1 since 3 March
Fuel secured through Export Finance Australia is adding a further buffer to our fuel security.
Since March, the temporary reduction has been critical in addressing supply chain crunches caused by unprecedented demand, especially in regional Australia. This measure provides ongoing flexibility for industry to respond quickly in the event of another significant spike in demand.
Our healthy domestic stockholdings have given Government confidence that a three-month extension strikes the right balance of keeping fuel reserves in good supply, while maintaining flexibility in the local market should global fuel market conditions deteriorate.
We continue to see expected ships arrive in our ports but the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global fuel markets and those impacts are flowing through to Australia, in higher prices and some supply uncertainty.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/government-maintains-fuel-security
While this is a description the government wants to communicate as a narrative, the Minister does not tell us how much fuel is actually in onshore tank farms.
Fig 4: Onshore and offshore diesel stocks (estimated)
This graph is an improved version compared to last week. Onshore and offshore shares are now also included for 3rd March (left column). Diesel stocks (MSO) were 2,973 ML (including offshore in the EEZ). End of February closing stock in the Australian Petroleum Statistics were 2,379 ML (onshore, in ports and coastal waters at ports), 80% of the MSO measured stock. Therefore, appr. 20% of 2,973 ML = 594 ML was far away off shore, not immediately available for urgent supplies. This meant that the onshore share was lower than the MSO level of 2,742 ML. That is why the MSO requirement was lowered.
Now let’s look at the current situation 26 May. The MSO diesel stock has been increased to 3,310 ML. In the meantime, APS released its March statistics. End of month stocks were 1,986 ML while MSO measured stocks were 2,634 ML on 31st March. So we have 75 % x 3,310 = 2,483 ML onshore. This means only 286 ML above the reduced MSO requirement of 2,197 ML. That would be about 3 days worth of diesel consumption. Therefore, no big projects with high diesel consumption should be started.
(4) Only late Saturday, after searching transcript, media release and press conference websites we got:
Press conference, Fairfield West, New South Wales
30 May 2026
Bowen: As we speak, we have 46 ships on the water on their way to Australia with varying types of fuel. That’s a good thing.
Fig 5: Downward trend in number of ships but how many ML does each tanker carry?
And we have 3.3 billion litres of fuel deliveries locked in for the next four weeks, contracted to be delivered. That consists of 1.6 billion litres worth of diesel, 591 million litres worth of petrol, 394 million litres worth of jet fuel and 664 million litres of crude oil.
That’s largely consistent with the figures we’ve seen in recent weeks, locked in deliveries of diesel and petrol a little lower than last week, locked in deliveries of jet fuel and crude oil a little higher than last week.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-fairfield-west-new-south-wales-1
Let’s put these numbers into a graph:
Fig 6: Forward orders excluding extra orders
Consistent with previous weeks? Yes, consistent with a decline. Yes, orders a little lower than last week but, oops, orders seem to have peaked beginning of May. Not a single journo noticed this.
(5) And another media release on the same day
Joint media release: Albanese Labor Government delivers additional diesel to Queensland
30 May 2026
The Albanese Labor Government has secured another 40 million litres of additional diesel for Queenslanders, through an agreement between Export Finance Australia (EFA) and independent supplier Freedom Fuels.
This shipment is due to arrive to Brisbane in June for onwards distribution to regional Queensland. This is in addition to 16 separate shipments already secured in partnership with Ampol, BP Australia, IOR and Viva Energy.
Combined, this brings the total amount of additional fuel shipments through the Government’s new Fuel and Fertiliser Security Facility to approximately 690 million litres of diesel and approximately 150 million litres of jet fuel across 17 additional shipments.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-albanese-labor-government-delivers-additional-diesel-queensland
That allows us to update a table we called “order book”. Finally, the Minister mentions numbered shipments. While the diesel total of 690 ML is correct, the balance is only 590 ML if we assume that the 100 ML already arrived is diesel order 1 and 2.
23 May 2026
That brings the total EFA supported imports to Australia to 800 million litres – 100 of which has already arrived and is already providing a buffer, and the other 700 million litres will arrive in coming weeks.
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-sydney-new-south-wales-4
With order #17 of 40 ML diesel that makes a balance of 740 ML
And the Minister mentioning only 150 ML jet fuel confirms that 3xjet fuel orders from China with 100 ML (announced 19 May https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/joint-media-release-albanese-labor-government-helps-secure-more-jet-fuel-and-fertiliser ) seems to have been cancelled.
The government’s reporting is inconsistent and unless a proper book keeping is adopted this will only get worse as previous orders arrive and are turned into imports.
Fig 7: Table showing EFA supported fuel supplies and balance
We can now update the graph including extra orders:
Fig 8: Forward diesel orders incl. EFA supported orders
We need to update the required diesel savings calculated in this post:
29/5/26
Australia may have to save 10% of diesel for the 2nd half of the year 2026
https://crudeoilpeak.info/australia-may-have-to-save-10-of-diesel-for-the-2nd-half-of-the-year-2026
Fig 9: New forward orders level compared to 2025 actual imports
Forward orders are now approaching the low March 2026 imports. IF forward orders were to continue at this level (which would also require to replace arriving extra orders with new extra orders), then 16% of 2,620 ML imports in 2025 would have to be saved.
Neither government departments nor the public are aware of this math. They continue business as usual by starting big diesel consuming projects like the Brisbane stadium.
Conclusion: The ad-hoc release of piecemeal information is getting worse week by week. The federal government must now tell the States NOT to start new, large scale, diesel consuming projects
