Jean Laherrere uses Hubbert linearization to estimate Bakken shale oil peak in 2014

In his latest research on shale oil French oil geologist Jean Laherrere from ASPO France

estimates a Bakken shale oil peak in 2014

He uses a Hubbert linearization to calculate a total of 2,500 mb to be produced

In global terms, a total cumulative of 2.5 Gb is just around 10% of annual crude production and 1.3% of daily production.

Well productivity in Bakken is stagnant at around 130 b/d for a couple of years now.

There has been a peak in the number of drilling rigs. A shift of the rigs curve by 2 years suggests a production peak in 2014.

Jean’s research is in line with that published by David Hughes in November 2013:

Update August 2014:

Ultimate between 2.5 and 4 Gb

Ultimate 2.2 Gb

Laherrere writes:

“…I have changed the shift [number of rigs to production] from 20 months to 30 months and the correlation oil/rig, but I feel uncertain about the reliability of such graph…….My new model forecasts ND oil production peak in 2015 at less than 1.2 Mb/d, but again this new model could be wrong as the old one.”