The summer hasn’t even started yet and the first lack-of-reserve and outage notices have appeared.
16 November 2020
(1) Line Outage Upper Tumut- Stockdill
AEMO market notice 80022 16/11/2020 01:39:08 PM
“An un-planned outage of Upper Tumut – Stockdill 1 330 kV Line in the NSW region occurred 12:52 hrs 16/11/2020
Constraint sets invoked: N-SDUT_1 and N-CNSD_3C
This constraint sets contains [linear] equations with the following interconnectors on the LHS [left hand side with controllable variables].
V-S-MNSP1 [Murraylink, 200/220 MW nominal capacity]
VIC1- NSW1 [Victoria to New South Wales, VIC->NSW 700-1600 MW, NSW->VIC 400-1350 MW]“
https://aemo.com.au/market-notices
Fig 1: Power supply by type shows drop in NSW imports
https://opennem.org.au/energy/nsw1/?range=1d&interval=30m
Fig 2: Corresponding drop in exports from Victoria
https://opennem.org.au/energy/vic1/?range=1d&interval=30m
Let’s have a look at the Upper Tumut – Stockdill line in a slideshow of ActewAGL:
Fig 3: Diversion/Bypass of Upper Tumut line 01 to the new Stockdill substation (West Belconnen)
https://slideplayer.com/slide/11936658/
The Stockdill substation is part of the ACT Second Electricity Supply Project which provides the Australian Capital Territory with a 2nd geographically separate supply point including for new suburbs in Ginninderry (Joint venture between the ACT government and Riverview Developments).
June 2018
Transgrid and Evoenergy
ACT Second Electricity Supply Project EIS Volume 1 Main Report by WSP
Fig 4: Project Overview
https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/1471873/19_32808-Documents-Part-04.pdf
The next graph shows us how the above maps fit into the NSW network:
Fig 5: TransGrid’s southern NSW network
The Canberra substation connects to the Capital Wind Farm (140 MW, 67 turbines, 360 GWh pa, line 6), Yass substation (line 9), Lower Tumut (line 07) and Upper Tumut (line 01)
This network plan is from the following report on the Upper Tumut substation which connects 616 MW of hydro power, supports 4 transmission lines and provide electricity flow paths between the Snowy Mountains, Canberra and Sydney.
Maintaining a reliable Upper Tumut substation
RIT-T –Project Specification Consultation Report
Region: Southern New South Wales
Date of issue: 26 March 2019
https://www.transgrid.com.au/what-we-do/projects/regulatory-investment-tests/Documents/TransGrid%20PSCR%20-%20Maintaining%20a%20reliable%20Upper%20Tumut%20substation.pdf
AEMO did not say what caused the outage. The line was returned to service at 14:00 hrs (AEMO market notice 80038)
(2) Price spike $7,495/MWh
AEMO dashboard 16 Nov 2020 13:00 – 13:30
Fig 6: AEMO dashboard screenshot
https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem
(3) Actual LOR1 condition in NSW
“An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the
National Electricity Rules for the NSW region from 1500 hrs.
The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 1700 hrs.
The capacity reserve requirement is 1320 MW
The minimum capacity reserve available is 766 MW”
https://aemo.com.au/market-notices [Filter by reserve notices]
There were several forecast LOR1 notices and cancellations, on and off
Forecast LOR1 (1053 MW vs 1476 MW) for 15:00 – 18:30 (reserve notice 79949 18:48 15 Nov 2020)
Forecast LOR1 (1133 MW vs 1476 MW) for 15:00 – 18:00 (reserve notice 79955 12:37)
Cancellation Forecast LOR 1 (reserve notice 79990 8:27)
Forecast LOR1 (1279 MW vs 1340 MW) for 15:30 to 16:00 (reserve notice 80040 14:25)
Cancellation Forecast LOR1 (reserve notice 80041 14:53)
(4) NSW Demand peak 12 GW
15:30 hrs, imports from QLD around 600 MW
Fig 7: Maximum demand 12,181 MW at 15:30 hrs
(5) Temperatures in Sydney
Fig 8: Temperatures in the Sydney Basin, 16th November 2020
20 November 2020
(6) Forecast lack of reserve
Forecast LOR1 (1184 MW vs 1400 MW) for 16:00 – 17:00 (reserve notice 80168 15:19)
Cancellation Forecast LOR 1 (reserve notice 80178 16:14)
This lack of reserve is very modest, just 15%. But we’ll have a long summer. The public needs to be informed.
(7) Price spike
AEMO dashboard 20 Nov 2020 14:00 – 14:30
Fig 9: AEMO dashboard screenshot
To be continued and updated
