In this 2nd part we use data from the BP Statistical Review (June 2020). BP’s definition of oil is different from OPEC’s crude oil used in part 1. It includes also shale…
Peak oil in Africa part1: OPEC quotas Jan 2021
We examine whether OPEC’s quotas for its African members are actually on the production decline path of these countries. OPEC’s quota levels can be found here: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/Voluntary%20Production%20Levels.pdf At present 7 oil producing…
Peak Oil in South & Central America
Feliz Navidad! (1) Pre-Covid ..Fig 1: Oil production and peak years Production peaked 2015 due to Venezuela’s production collapse. Brazil’s production has not yet peaked but is unlikely to offset Venezuela’s decline….
NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 2)
28-29 November Fig 10: Temperatures in Sydney (8) More Lack-of-reserve warnings Fig 11: timeline of AEMO’s notices The table shows the sequence of LOR notices for 28-29 Nov 2020 and their final…
NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 1)
The summer hasn’t even started yet and the first lack-of-reserve and outage notices have appeared. 16 November 2020 (1) Line Outage Upper Tumut- Stockdill AEMO market notice 80022 16/11/2020 01:39:08 PM “An…
Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context
Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security 30 Oct 2020 Fig 2: Kwinana…
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 4)
In the previous posts we have shown that the peak oil problem in Asia is mainly a problem of skyrocketing consumption at an additional 1 mb/d (2.8%) each year. Whereas in Europe…
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)
Fig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia with approximately…
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
Continued from part 1 But there is another metric explaining China’s oil consumption growth: debt. The following graph is from an article by the Institute of International Finance in its weekly insight…
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
Fig 1: Asian oil consumption is around 5 times higher than production The production decline after the peak in 2015 is very modest. The size of the gap between consumption and production…