The Australian Capital’s daily newspaper Canberra Times started the New Year by reprinting an article of the Daily Telegraph referring to an abundance of oil – without checking whether this also applies…
Fireworks calendar 2015
January Bush fires in Adelaide, Australia February Explosion in Kobani, Syria March Great Prophet 9 war games in Straits of Hormuz April Hanging tracks blasted over culvert washout on substandard main rail…
Where actually is that much-hyped global oil glut?
The media is full with news that there is a global oil glut. There are now more than 3bn barrels of excess oil in the world 13/11/2015 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11993687/There-are-now-more-than-3bn-barrels-of-excess-oil-in-the-world.html Record oil glut stands…
Egypt budget and current account deficits – can Saudi Arabia bail out Cairo?
Arab News reports: KSA pledges SR 30bn Egypt aid 17/12/2015 “JEDDAH: Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman has ordered that Saudi Arabia’s aid and investment package to Egypt should be…
Egypt update: net oil importer and chokepoints
Oil production and consumption Fig 1: Oil production vs consumption After a post-peak decline production has stabilized but consumption has increased relentlessly at a long-term 1.7% pa, slightly below population growth of…
IEA: US$ 40 oil means 3 mb/d less tight oil by 2020
You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb/d less US tight (shale)…
Iraq needs 1.3 mb/d additional oil exports and $US 70 oil to balance budget
The following graphs use data from the latest Article IV consultation report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in August 2015. All IMF papers on Iraq are here. Government Revenues Fig…
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal break-even oil price to be around $US 100 mark for the foreseeable future
The latest IMF Article IV consultation report on Saudi Arabia was published on 9 September 2015. http://www.imf.org/external/country/sau/ Extract: Government spending has increased substantially in recent years. Consequently, the breakeven oil price rose…
US shale oil too expensive, peaks 1H 2015
According to EIA data, monthly US crude oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.6 mb/d. Fig 1: US crude oil production to June 2015 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_m.htm The above graph shows that US…
Syria peak oil weakened government’s finances ahead of Arab Spring in 2011
While the attention of the world is on the refugee crisis we need to look at the causes of this mass exodus. Fig 1: Refugees walking on Hungarian motorway towards Austria in…