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![September 2018 5/9/2018 4 scenarios by RBC Capital Markets (1) Waiting Game Oil price neutral. Iran honors its commitments under the nuclear deal attempting to wait out the Trump administration. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Iran-crude-condensate_exports_Mar2016-Aug2018-36x36.jpg "Iran Update")
Iran Update
04 September 2018 11:27 AM | No Comments -
![Part 2 Eraring, Mt Piper, Vales Pt Introduction: The NSW government is selling Snowy Hydro to the Federal Government, thereby demonstrating beyond doubt that it is abrogating its duty of […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Eraring1_Jan2018-RG-36x36.jpg "NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2)")
NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2)
16 March 2018 11:36 PM | No Comments -
![This article is about a paper I handed over to former Prime Minister Howard during a seminar at the Australian Institute of International Affairs on 31/10/2017 Australia in Today’s World […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/BP_crude_NGL_production_by_region_2000_2016-36x36.jpg "Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004")
Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004
31 October 2017 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Immigrants to blame for high house prices, businessman Dick Smith claims Mr Smith said “jumbo loads” of immigrants arriving each week were the “main driver” behind the country’s housing affordability […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW_population_pyramid_1971-2016-36x36.jpg "Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration")
Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration
27 February 2017 8:17 AM | No Comments -
![This article is part 3 of a series on peak oil in the South China Sea. Bloomberg commented on 15/12/2016 that “Trump’s Top Diplomat Would Bring Complex History With China […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Vietnam_gas_production_by_field_1991-2015-36x36.jpg "Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim")
Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim
28 December 2016 7:06 PM | No Comments -
![In part 2 of this series we continue our excursion into Sydney’s rail world and look at whether this city spends its rail money wisely to prepare for an age […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Railcorp_ATP_briefing-36x36.jpg "Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)")
Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)
04 January 2015 9:02 AM | No Comments -
![Contents: (1) Epping – Chatswood tunnel conversion works proposed (2) Removal of tracks at Epping and Chatswood (3) Operational flexibility reduced (4) Removal of signalling What can the world […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Tangara_Sydney_Central_via_Macquarie_Park-Dec2014-36x36.jpg "Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)")
Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)
30 December 2014 9:28 PM | No Comments -
![A sustainable city is foremost an energy thrifty city with a minimum of energy used for transport. A good example is the 1976 master plan for Dodoma in Tanzania, an […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/community_316ha-36x36.jpg "Sustainable Cities Master Plan")
Sustainable Cities Master Plan
26 August 2009 9:00 AM | No Comments
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![In part 1 of this post we looked at various Taiwan scenarios of US think tanks. https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-diesel-imports-update-january-2025-data-preparing-for-surprises-in-the-strait-of-taiwan So what does all this mean for Australia’s fuel imports from East Asia? […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/AU-Diesel-imports-China-Taiwan-Jan21-Jan25.jpg "Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan (part 2)")
Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan (part 2)
22 May 2025 5:05 PM | No Comments -
![Diesel is the most important fuel to sustain the economy. Fig 1: Australian Diesel consumption has been increasing on a long-term trend Fig 2: Australian refinery production of diesel in […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Diesel-imports-last-12months-Dec2024.jpg "Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan?")
Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan?
22 April 2025 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![This is part 2 of the previous post of 4 Mar 2025 https://crudeoilpeak.info/us-shale-oil-seems-to-cover-up-peaking-crude-oil-production-in-the-rest-of-the-world-since-2018 In this post we focus on the period 2016 – Oct 2024 This is a graph showing […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Incremental-crude-Jun2020-Nov2024.jpg "Post-Covid crude production in world outside the US still lower than end 2018")
Post-Covid crude production in world outside the US still lower than end 2018
25 March 2025 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Update on incremental world crude and condensate oil production Oct 2024 What happened to peak oil after conventional crude oil started to peak in 2005 at 74 mb/d? Here is […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Incremental-crude-2004-Oct2024.jpg "US shale oil seems to cover up peaking crude oil production in the rest of the world since 2018")
US shale oil seems to cover up peaking crude oil production in the rest of the world since 2018
04 March 2025 4:06 PM | No Comments -
![Tuesday, 4th February 2025 Fig 1: Temperatures in the Sydney basin 4 Feb 2025 Fig 2: 2 price spikes up to $ 5,600 /Mh in the afternoon and evening The […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-coal-plants-4Feb25.jpg "Another hot windless day in NSW and coal power plants were running at 90 per cent available capacity after sunset")
Another hot windless day in NSW and coal power plants were running at 90 per cent available capacity after sunset
07 February 2025 6:00 PM | No Comments -
![A Queensland scorcher on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices $14,000/MWh for 2 hrs Fig 1: Australia’s synoptic chart for 22 Jan 2025 Townsville […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Qld22Jan25.jpg "Queensland heat wave on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices for 2 hrs")
Queensland heat wave on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices for 2 hrs
25 January 2025 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Political debate The NSW power shortage problem made it to the Question time in Parliament Wednesday, 27 November 2024 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES It so happened that 3 bills on a […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-coal-plant-closure-years-2027-2040.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 4)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 4)
08 December 2024 5:00 PM | No Comments -
![In part 1 we saw details of the Tomago smelter load shedding, part 2 was about coal plants. And in this post, we look at generation from renewables and gas […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-windfarms_27Nov2024.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 3)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 3)
06 December 2024 11:08 AM | No Comments -
![In the first part we saw details of the Tomago smelter load shedding. In this post, let’s have a look at the coal plants: Fig 10: Table showing availability of […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-4-coal-plants-27Nov24.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 2)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 2)
06 December 2024 7:27 AM | No Comments -
![At lunchtime, on Nov 27th, estimated demand in NSW was around 12,000 MW with a long period of extremely high spot prices: Fig 1: NSW electricity demand and forecast spot […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-LOR-table-27Nov2023.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 1)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 1)
05 December 2024 10:32 PM | No Comments
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Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan (part 2)
In part 1 of this post we looked at various Taiwan scenarios of US think tanks. https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-diesel-imports-update-january-2025-data-preparing-for-surprises-in-the-strait-of-taiwan So what does all this mean for Australia’s fuel imports from East Asia? […]
Latest Headlines
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![The summer hasn’t even started yet and the first lack-of-reserve and outage notices have appeared. 16 November 2020 (1) Line Outage Upper Tumut- Stockdill AEMO market notice 80022 16/11/2020 01:39:08 […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-power-generation-12GW_16Nov2020-115x115.jpg "NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 1)")
NSW power supply problems November 2020 (part 1)
Posted on November 26, 2020 | No CommentsThe summer hasn’t even started yet and the first lack-of-reserve and outage notices have appeared. 16 November 2020 (1) Line Outage Upper Tumut- Stockdill AEMO market notice 80022 16/11/2020 01:39:08 […] -
![Fig 1: BP is in peak oil mode BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security 30 Oct 2020 Fig […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Australian_imports_crude_products_1978-2019-115x115.jpg "Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context")
Australia’s BP Kwinana refinery closure: peak oil context
Posted on November 14, 2020 | No CommentsFig 1: BP is in peak oil mode BP shuts down Kwinana refinery with 600 jobs expected to go, Commonwealth says no impact on fuel security 30 Oct 2020 Fig […] -
![In the previous posts we have shown that the peak oil problem in Asia is mainly a problem of skyrocketing consumption at an additional 1 mb/d (2.8%) each year. Whereas […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Japan-fuel-consumption_1965-2019-1-115x115.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 4)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 4)
Posted on September 10, 2020 | No CommentsIn the previous posts we have shown that the peak oil problem in Asia is mainly a problem of skyrocketing consumption at an additional 1 mb/d (2.8%) each year. Whereas […] -
![Fig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Asia-Pacific-oil-production_BP-1965_2019-115x115.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 3)
Posted on August 17, 2020 | No CommentsFig 22: The peak of the largest producer China determined the Asian peak From the countries in Fig 22 the 3rd and 4th largest oil importers are Thailand and Indonesia […] -
![Continued from part 1 But there is another metric explaining China’s oil consumption growth: debt. The following graph is from an article by the Institute of International Finance in its […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/China_oil-consumption-debt_2000-18-115x115.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 2)
Posted on July 15, 2020 | No CommentsContinued from part 1 But there is another metric explaining China’s oil consumption growth: debt. The following graph is from an article by the Institute of International Finance in its […] -
![Fig 1: Asian oil consumption is around 5 times higher than production The production decline after the peak in 2015 is very modest. The size of the gap between consumption […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Asia_oil_production_consumption_1965-2019_fill_in-2039-115x115.jpg "Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)")
Peak oil in Asia Update June 2020 (part 1)
Posted on June 30, 2020 | No CommentsFig 1: Asian oil consumption is around 5 times higher than production The production decline after the peak in 2015 is very modest. The size of the gap between consumption […] -
![From the Energy Minister’s media release: Australia to boost fuel security and establish national oil reserve 22 April 2020 The Australian Government is boosting the nation’s long-term fuel security by […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve_US-115x115.jpg "Australia outsources its oil reserve problem to the US")
Australia outsources its oil reserve problem to the US
Posted on May 22, 2020 | No CommentsFrom the Energy Minister’s media release: Australia to boost fuel security and establish national oil reserve 22 April 2020 The Australian Government is boosting the nation’s long-term fuel security by […] -
![Fig 1: The conventional crude oil plateau started in 2005 At the end of the high oil price period in June 2014, Virgin Australia had liabilities of $ 4.7 bn. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Virgin-Australia_Profits_2003-1H20-115x115.jpg "How the first phase of peak oil brought Virgin Australia into minus after 2008")
How the first phase of peak oil brought Virgin Australia into minus after 2008
Posted on May 3, 2020 | No CommentsFig 1: The conventional crude oil plateau started in 2005 At the end of the high oil price period in June 2014, Virgin Australia had liabilities of $ 4.7 bn. […] -
![Empty roads, grounded aircraft, falling tourist and international student numbers, plunging car sales, empty super market shelves, disrupted supply chains… Fig 1: Empty roads in Wuhan in February 2020 China […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Wuhan-20Feb2020-115x115.jpg "Impact of Corona Virus similar to some earlier peak oil scenarios")
Impact of Corona Virus similar to some earlier peak oil scenarios
Posted on March 10, 2020 | No CommentsEmpty roads, grounded aircraft, falling tourist and international student numbers, plunging car sales, empty super market shelves, disrupted supply chains… Fig 1: Empty roads in Wuhan in February 2020 China […] -
![The pervasive climate change denial of various Australian governments and its consequences in the energy sector now take terrible revenge. This article is about an incident on Sat 4th 2020. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Tumut3-Power-station-saved-115x115.jpg "Bush fires cause load shedding in New South Wales – January 2020")
Bush fires cause load shedding in New South Wales – January 2020
Posted on February 4, 2020 | No CommentsThe pervasive climate change denial of various Australian governments and its consequences in the energy sector now take terrible revenge. This article is about an incident on Sat 4th 2020. […]
