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![September 2018 5/9/2018 4 scenarios by RBC Capital Markets (1) Waiting Game Oil price neutral. Iran honors its commitments under the nuclear deal attempting to wait out the Trump administration. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Iran-crude-condensate_exports_Mar2016-Aug2018-36x36.jpg "Iran Update")
Iran Update
04 September 2018 11:27 AM | No Comments -
![Part 2 Eraring, Mt Piper, Vales Pt Introduction: The NSW government is selling Snowy Hydro to the Federal Government, thereby demonstrating beyond doubt that it is abrogating its duty of […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Eraring1_Jan2018-RG-36x36.jpg "NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2)")
NSW coal power maxed out in hot summer (part 2)
16 March 2018 11:36 PM | No Comments -
![This article is about a paper I handed over to former Prime Minister Howard during a seminar at the Australian Institute of International Affairs on 31/10/2017 Australia in Today’s World […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/BP_crude_NGL_production_by_region_2000_2016-36x36.jpg "Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004")
Howard’s Energy Policy Failure 2004
31 October 2017 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Immigrants to blame for high house prices, businessman Dick Smith claims Mr Smith said “jumbo loads” of immigrants arriving each week were the “main driver” behind the country’s housing affordability […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW_population_pyramid_1971-2016-36x36.jpg "Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration")
Sydney would peak at 4.9 million with zero net overseas migration
27 February 2017 8:17 AM | No Comments -
![This article is part 3 of a series on peak oil in the South China Sea. Bloomberg commented on 15/12/2016 that “Trump’s Top Diplomat Would Bring Complex History With China […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Vietnam_gas_production_by_field_1991-2015-36x36.jpg "Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim")
Exxon plans to produce gas close to China’s 9 dash line claim
28 December 2016 7:06 PM | No Comments -
![In part 2 of this series we continue our excursion into Sydney’s rail world and look at whether this city spends its rail money wisely to prepare for an age […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Railcorp_ATP_briefing-36x36.jpg "Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)")
Sydney mismanages transition to driver-less single deck trains (part 2)
04 January 2015 9:02 AM | No Comments -
![Contents: (1) Epping – Chatswood tunnel conversion works proposed (2) Removal of tracks at Epping and Chatswood (3) Operational flexibility reduced (4) Removal of signalling What can the world […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Tangara_Sydney_Central_via_Macquarie_Park-Dec2014-36x36.jpg "Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)")
Sydney plans to dismantle rail infrastructure built just 6 years ago (part 1)
30 December 2014 9:28 PM | No Comments -
![A sustainable city is foremost an energy thrifty city with a minimum of energy used for transport. A good example is the 1976 master plan for Dodoma in Tanzania, an […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/community_316ha-36x36.jpg "Sustainable Cities Master Plan")
Sustainable Cities Master Plan
26 August 2009 9:00 AM | No Comments
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![In part 1 of this post we looked at various Taiwan scenarios of US think tanks. https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-diesel-imports-update-january-2025-data-preparing-for-surprises-in-the-strait-of-taiwan So what does all this mean for Australia’s fuel imports from East Asia? […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/AU-Diesel-imports-China-Taiwan-Jan21-Jan25.jpg "Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan (part 2)")
Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan (part 2)
22 May 2025 5:05 PM | No Comments -
![Diesel is the most important fuel to sustain the economy. Fig 1: Australian Diesel consumption has been increasing on a long-term trend Fig 2: Australian refinery production of diesel in […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Diesel-imports-last-12months-Dec2024.jpg "Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan?")
Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan?
22 April 2025 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![This is part 2 of the previous post of 4 Mar 2025 https://crudeoilpeak.info/us-shale-oil-seems-to-cover-up-peaking-crude-oil-production-in-the-rest-of-the-world-since-2018 In this post we focus on the period 2016 – Oct 2024 This is a graph showing […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Incremental-crude-Jun2020-Nov2024.jpg "Post-Covid crude production in world outside the US still lower than end 2018")
Post-Covid crude production in world outside the US still lower than end 2018
25 March 2025 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Update on incremental world crude and condensate oil production Oct 2024 What happened to peak oil after conventional crude oil started to peak in 2005 at 74 mb/d? Here is […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Incremental-crude-2004-Oct2024.jpg "US shale oil seems to cover up peaking crude oil production in the rest of the world since 2018")
US shale oil seems to cover up peaking crude oil production in the rest of the world since 2018
04 March 2025 4:06 PM | No Comments -
![Tuesday, 4th February 2025 Fig 1: Temperatures in the Sydney basin 4 Feb 2025 Fig 2: 2 price spikes up to $ 5,600 /Mh in the afternoon and evening The […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-coal-plants-4Feb25.jpg "Another hot windless day in NSW and coal power plants were running at 90 per cent available capacity after sunset")
Another hot windless day in NSW and coal power plants were running at 90 per cent available capacity after sunset
07 February 2025 6:00 PM | No Comments -
![A Queensland scorcher on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices $14,000/MWh for 2 hrs Fig 1: Australia’s synoptic chart for 22 Jan 2025 Townsville […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Qld22Jan25.jpg "Queensland heat wave on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices for 2 hrs")
Queensland heat wave on 22 Jan 2025 caused lack of reserves LOR2 and high spot prices for 2 hrs
25 January 2025 12:00 PM | No Comments -
![Political debate The NSW power shortage problem made it to the Question time in Parliament Wednesday, 27 November 2024 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES It so happened that 3 bills on a […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-coal-plant-closure-years-2027-2040.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 4)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 4)
08 December 2024 5:00 PM | No Comments -
![In part 1 we saw details of the Tomago smelter load shedding, part 2 was about coal plants. And in this post, we look at generation from renewables and gas […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-windfarms_27Nov2024.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 3)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 3)
06 December 2024 11:08 AM | No Comments -
![In the first part we saw details of the Tomago smelter load shedding. In this post, let’s have a look at the coal plants: Fig 10: Table showing availability of […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-4-coal-plants-27Nov24.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 2)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 2)
06 December 2024 7:27 AM | No Comments -
![At lunchtime, on Nov 27th, estimated demand in NSW was around 12,000 MW with a long period of extremely high spot prices: Fig 1: NSW electricity demand and forecast spot […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/NSW-LOR-table-27Nov2023.jpg "Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 1)")
Load shedding in New South Wales 27 November 2024 (part 1)
05 December 2024 10:32 PM | No Comments
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Australian diesel imports update January 2025 data. Preparing for surprises in the Strait of Taiwan (part 2)
In part 1 of this post we looked at various Taiwan scenarios of US think tanks. https://crudeoilpeak.info/australian-diesel-imports-update-january-2025-data-preparing-for-surprises-in-the-strait-of-taiwan So what does all this mean for Australia’s fuel imports from East Asia? […]
Latest Headlines
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![The world came very close to an escalating war in the Middle East. BBC asked: Iran missile attack: Did Tehran intentionally avoid US casualties? 8/1/2020 Fig 1: Damage to the […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Assad-US-air-base-damage-115x115.png "Australia’s oil consumption highly vulnerable to events in the Middle East")
Australia’s oil consumption highly vulnerable to events in the Middle East
Posted on January 12, 2020 | No CommentsThe world came very close to an escalating war in the Middle East. BBC asked: Iran missile attack: Did Tehran intentionally avoid US casualties? 8/1/2020 Fig 1: Damage to the […] -
![In part 1 we had a summary table comparing Rystad’s 1P (proven reserves), 2P (proven + probable reserves) and 2PC (2P reserves + mean contingent) for all countries outside the […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Oil-consumption_1965-2018-115x115.jpg "Uncertainties following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world’s safe oil reserves by around half (part 2)")
Uncertainties following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world’s safe oil reserves by around half (part 2)
Posted on October 24, 2019 | No CommentsIn part 1 we had a summary table comparing Rystad’s 1P (proven reserves), 2P (proven + probable reserves) and 2PC (2P reserves + mean contingent) for all countries outside the […] -
![The world has returned to business as usual after the Saudis assured oil markets that production will be back soon and as oil prices have returned to pre-attack levels and […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/World_oil_production_ME_top_1965-2018-115x115.jpg "Uncertainties following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world’s safe oil reserves by around half (part 1)")
Uncertainties following the Abqaiq attack have shrunk the world’s safe oil reserves by around half (part 1)
Posted on October 16, 2019 | No CommentsThe world has returned to business as usual after the Saudis assured oil markets that production will be back soon and as oil prices have returned to pre-attack levels and […] -
![Fig 1: The attackers hit at Fajr prayer time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw_IwRPUZOQ When the late Houston based investment banker Matt Simmons wrote his 2005 book “Twilight in the desert, the coming Saudi […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Abqaiq-attack-prayer-time-115x115.jpg "The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar")
The Attacks on Abqaiq and Peak oil in Ghawar
Posted on October 1, 2019 | No CommentsFig 1: The attackers hit at Fajr prayer time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sw_IwRPUZOQ When the late Houston based investment banker Matt Simmons wrote his 2005 book “Twilight in the desert, the coming Saudi […] -
![Asian oil production peaked above 8 mb/d for the period between 2008 and 2016 (with spikes in 2010 and 2015). The 2015 peak was mainly caused by peak oil in […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2018_fill_in-2038-115x115.jpg "Peak oil in Asia: where will the oil come from for the Asian Century?")
Peak oil in Asia: where will the oil come from for the Asian Century?
Posted on September 10, 2019 | No CommentsAsian oil production peaked above 8 mb/d for the period between 2008 and 2016 (with spikes in 2010 and 2015). The 2015 peak was mainly caused by peak oil in […] -
![This post is an update of a graph done in 2015: Fig 1: Conventional oil production on bumpy plateau 2005-2014 In http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs When adding the new data for 2015-2018 it […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/World_conv-crude_plateau_2005-2018-115x115.jpg "2005-2018 Conventional crude production on a bumpy plateau – with a little help from Iraq")
2005-2018 Conventional crude production on a bumpy plateau – with a little help from Iraq
Posted on August 26, 2019 | No CommentsThis post is an update of a graph done in 2015: Fig 1: Conventional oil production on bumpy plateau 2005-2014 In http://crudeoilpeak.info/latest-graphs When adding the new data for 2015-2018 it […] -
![Tankers holed and burning in the Gulf of Oman are not a good sign for future oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Fig 1: Norway’s Front Altair burning with 75,000 […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Front_Altair_13Jun2019-115x115.jpg "Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?")
Persian Gulf oil export peak after tanker attacks?
Posted on June 21, 2019 | No CommentsTankers holed and burning in the Gulf of Oman are not a good sign for future oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Fig 1: Norway’s Front Altair burning with 75,000 […] -
![In the year 2005, the global crude production curve shows a definitive kink, going horizontal for several years. This caused the 2008 oil price shock and the following financial crisis […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/World_crude_production_1994-Dec2018-115x115.jpg "World crude production outside US and Iraq is flat since 2005")
World crude production outside US and Iraq is flat since 2005
Posted on June 10, 2019 | No CommentsIn the year 2005, the global crude production curve shows a definitive kink, going horizontal for several years. This caused the 2008 oil price shock and the following financial crisis […] -
![Australia increased its internal oil dependency & vulnerability Let’s summarize what we covered in part 1 and 2 Australian oil production peaked in the year 2000 while oil consumption is […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/Sydney_airports_demand_forecast_2015-2075-115x115.jpg "Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 3)")
Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 3)
Posted on May 2, 2019 | No CommentsAustralia increased its internal oil dependency & vulnerability Let’s summarize what we covered in part 1 and 2 Australian oil production peaked in the year 2000 while oil consumption is […] -
![Coming back to the 2019 Liquid Security Review https://www.environment.gov.au/energy/liquid-fuel-security-review-consultation Figures 9-11 in part 1 show how dependent Australia has become on fuel imports from South Korea and Japan, even China. […]](https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/China_crude_Production_imports_2002_Dec2018-115x115.jpg "Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 2)")
Australian Fuel Security Review ignores peak oil in China 2015 (part 2)
Posted on April 30, 2019 | No CommentsComing back to the 2019 Liquid Security Review https://www.environment.gov.au/energy/liquid-fuel-security-review-consultation Figures 9-11 in part 1 show how dependent Australia has become on fuel imports from South Korea and Japan, even China. […]
